UMA (Universal Market Access) is a token of a decentralized protocol on the Ethereum blockchain created for developing financial contracts and synthetic assets. Founded in 2018 by former Goldman Sachs traders Allison Lu and Hart Lambur, UMA uses an Optimistic Oracle that provides access to external data for smart contracts, minimizing costs and risks. The UMA token is used for governance, voting on disputes in the oracle, and providing economic guarantees. The protocol supports DeFi, prediction markets, cross-chain bridges, and tokenization.
- Price (June 22, 2025): ~$1.20–$1.30 (according to CoinMarketCap and Coinbase).
- Market capitalization: ~$103–$112 million (rank ~400–447).
- Trading volume (24h): ~$9–$15 million, down 19% in a day.
- News:
- Partnership with Polymarket and X (June 6, 2025) to create a prediction market, increasing UMA's visibility.
- Integration with EigenLayer and Polymarket for a new prediction oracle (March 2025).
- The protocol's TVL has reached $228 million (DeFiLlama), with growth potential.
- Activity on X shows mixed sentiments: bullish expectations from partnerships, but concerns over volatility.
## Technical analysis
- Current situation: The price of UMA has fallen by 97.4% from ATH ($43.37, February 2021) and is trading at $1.20–$1.30, up 24.88% from the minimum of $0.8986 (April 2025). An ascending triangle is visible on the daily chart, with support at $1.15 and resistance at $1.41. Bullish divergence on RSI indicates a potential breakout.
- Key levels:
- Support: $1.15–$1.20 (50-day SMA $1.189).: $1.41, then $1.55.
- Indicators:
- RSI (daily): ~46.99, neutral zone, no overbought conditions.
- MACD: Neutral, with a hint of a bullish crossover.
- SMA: Price is above the 50-day SMA ($1.189) but below the 200-day ($1.874), indicating a bearish long-term trend.
- Volumes: Decrease from $20 million (June) to $9–$15 million, but increased activity after news about X and Polymarket.
- Chart: Price tests $1.20 in an ascending triangle. Closing above $1.41 could lift the price to $1.55. Check on TradingView (UMA/USDT) or CoinMarketCap.
## Fundamental factors
- Positive:
- Leadership in Optimistic Oracle used in Polymarket, EigenLayer, Across Protocol, and DAO.
- Partnership with X (200 million users) enhances visibility and utility.
- Growth of TVL ($228 million) and integrations with DeFi protocols.
- OpenZeppelin audits increase trust in security.
- Risks:
- High volatility: price fell by 14.2% over the week and by 7% in a day.
- Competition with Chainlink and Pyth Network.
- Pessimism on X due to repeated pumps and dumps.
- Unlocking tokens (total supply 123.8 million, circulating 85.99 million) may increase selling pressure.
## Recommendations
- Traders: Buy when holding at $1.20 (target $1.41–$1.55, stop-loss $1.10). Sell on breakout at $1.15 (target $0.90). Watch volumes and news about Polymarket.
- Investors: Growth potential is linked to DeFi and prediction markets, but high volatility and competition pose risks. Await news on TVL and new integrations.
- Monitoring: Follow X (@UMAprotocol, @Polymarket) and charts on TradingView.