#SwingTradingStrategy

#BTC走势分析

$BTC

Based on the latest technical analysis and expert forecasts from June 2025, Bitcoin's price trajectory presents a mix of bullish signals and cautionary indicators. Here's a comprehensive breakdown:

### **Current Technical Landscape (June 2025)**

1. **Price Levels and Trends**

- **Spot Price**: ~$109,600 (as of May 27, 2025), consolidating near all-time highs after breaking through $109,346 resistance .

- **Trends**:

- *Short-term*: Bullish (supported by rising volumes and sustained institutional inflows) .

- *Medium-term*: Mixed signals—some analysts note a breakdown below $106,000 support, suggesting potential downside .

- *Long-term*: Bullish channel intact, but overbought conditions may lead to corrections .

2. **Key Levels**

- **Resistances**: $110,500, $112,000 (previous ATH), and $113,600 as next targets .

- **Supports**: $106,790 (critical), $100,700, and $92,700 if bearish momentum accelerates .

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### **Bullish Scenarios**

1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: Analysts like Gert van Lagen predict a "Wave 5" parabolic surge to **$325,000 by July 2025**, citing historical post-halving cycles and a rising wedge pattern .

2. **Institutional Demand**: Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holdings (e.g., MicroStrategy) continue to drive liquidity, with targets of **$150K–$250K by year-end** .

3. **Technical Patterns**:

- Bullish flag formation at $105,000 supports upward momentum .

- On-chain metrics (e.g., whale activity, OBV) confirm accumulation phases .

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### **Bearish Risks**

1. **Correction Signals**:

- RSI divergence and negative volume balance suggest short-term weakness .

- Breakdown below $106,790 could trigger a drop to **$92,700–$100,000** .

2. **Macro Factors**: Geopolitical tensions or regulatory shifts (e.g., MiCAR in the EU) may dampen sentiment .