The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with Israel carrying out airstrikes on Iran for over a week. Experts are now warning that this escalation could destabilize Iran’s government, and if that happens, global oil prices may spike sharply.

According to CNBC, this conflict isn’t just about nuclear weapons anymore—it’s potentially leading to a power vacuum in a major oil-producing nation. While oil prices have only risen about 10% so far, both Brent and U.S. crude are still under $80 per barrel. That’s because current oil supplies haven’t been directly disrupted yet. However, if the fighting continues or expands, financial markets may start reacting more aggressively.$ETH

Political Support and High Stakes

Former U.S. President Donald #Trump has shown support for Israel and has issued warnings to Iran’s leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have openly stated their aim is to weaken Iran’s military and possibly encourage regime change from within the country.

Though Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu denies actively seeking regime change, he admits the current Iranian leadership may not survive the conflict. Analysts believe that if the Iranian regime collapses, it could trigger long-term instability in oil markets.

Historic Price Surges Linked to Regime Change

History shows that when oil-rich governments collapse, prices tend to spike significantly. JPMorgan analysts noted that in similar situations since 1979, oil prices surged on average by 76%, and stayed about 30% higher in the aftermath.

For example:

After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, oil prices nearly tripled.

When Libya overthrew Gaddafi in 2011, prices jumped from $93 to $130 per barrel in just a few months.

If Iran—a much larger oil exporter—were to see a similar collapse, the shock could be even worse.

New Risks to Shipping and Supply Chains

Experts are also worried about Iran potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway that handles about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. There are early signs that Iran is already interfering with ship tracking systems in the region, raising fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt global energy flows.

If the U.S. joins Israeli strikes and targets Iran’s nuclear facilities, prices could spike further—possibly rising $4–$6 per barrel in the short term. In a worst-case scenario, Iran could respond by attacking regional infrastructure or halting oil tankers in the Gulf.$BTC