As of 2023, the scale of U.S. national debt has exceeded $34 trillion, accounting for more than 120% of GDP, a historical high. The growth of debt is mainly due to long-term fiscal deficits, tax reduction policies, COVID-19 relief, and increased interest costs due to rising interest rates. Currently, about 78% of the national debt is held by the public (including foreign investors), and 22% is held internally by the government.
Main risks include:
1. Rising proportion of interest expenditures, with interest on national debt reaching $659 billion in fiscal year 2023, accounting for 12% of federal spending;
2. Declining proportion of foreign holdings (China's holdings have fallen to the lowest level since 2009);
3. Political deadlock leading to frequent debt ceiling crises.
International institutions continue to warn of unsustainable debt, but the temporary support of the dollar's hegemonic status underpins its financing capacity. In the long term, an aging population and rising healthcare costs will exacerbate fiscal pressure, and bipartisan policy differences make structural reforms difficult to advance. The debt issue may gradually be resolved through inflation dilution or long-term fiscal tightening.