$BTC $USD1 #bainacesquare
In the event of the United States directly entering the Israeli-Iranian conflict, financial markets face several impacts:
1. Rising Oil Prices: The benchmark crude oil (Brent) has risen by approximately 18% since June 10, and investors are hedging against the possibility of prices reaching $120–130 per barrel in the event of Gulf supply disruptions or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Stock Market Volatility: Despite the S&P 500 index holding at high levels, U.S. entry could initially lead to a sharp decline, typically followed by a quick recovery within weeks.
3. Safe-Haven Asset Flows: Assets such as gold, the dollar, and U.S. bonds are experiencing a resurgence due to safe-haven demand, while Treasury yields are touching strong levels.
4. Inflationary Pressures: The surge in energy prices will have global inflationary effects, potentially putting pressure on interest rate cut expectations and hastening rate hikes, amid weaker economies.
5. Regional Impact Disparities: Oil-importing countries, particularly in Asia and Europe, will be more affected, while the United States will be less impacted due to its large domestic production.
Conclusion: Any U.S. intervention will lead to sharp short-term volatility in stock, bond, and commodity markets, with rising oil prices and driving global inflation, but history suggests a potential sharp recovery after 2–4 weeks.
