📊 #MacroUpdate | June 21, 2025
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, but the tone is shifting — and the latest data supports that move.
🏷️ CPI – Consumer Prices (May):
+0.1% MoM | +2.4% YoY
Core CPI: +0.1% MoM | +2.8% YoY
📉 Inflation is clearly cooling — energy and goods dragging overall price growth lower.
🧩 PPI – Producer Prices (May):
+0.1% MoM | +2.6% YoY
⚠️ Mild cost pressures, but still no pass-through spike.
👥 Jobless Claims (Week ending June 14):
Initial: 245,000
4-week avg: 245,500 (highest since Aug 2023)
Continuing: ~1.94M
🧊 Labor market is softening — job growth is losing momentum.
🧠 What This Means
Inflation is softening. The labor market is cooling. Producer costs remain contained. Together, this strengthens the case for a Fed pivot in Q3.
📉 Fed Outlook – My View
Powell said inflation progress is “meaningful” but not yet decisive.
Waller hinted at a July cut if data confirms this cooling trend.
Yet others (Barkin, Daly) want to wait — tariffs, global risks, and sticky services inflation still linger.
📊 Markets are undecided:
Bonds are pricing in easing
Risk assets (especially crypto) are still in consolidation mode
A September cut is increasingly likely, but not fully priced in
