Traditionally, during periods of geopolitical instability, investors seek a 'safe haven' – and historically, such an asset has been gold. Its value usually rises under such conditions. This has happened now: amid the conflict, gold prices have surged sharply, while Bitcoin has shown a decline.
Economist and vocal cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff points to this imbalance:
“When Israel attacks Iran, oil prices rise by 5%, indices fall, and gold goes up. At the same time, Bitcoin falls. How can it be considered an equivalent to gold?”
Since the beginning of 2025, gold has risen by 31%, while Bitcoin has added only 14%. Nevertheless, both assets remain near historical highs: gold is trading at around $3,500 per ounce, Bitcoin is around $112,000.
What really drives Bitcoin?
Many experts believe that the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts on Bitcoin's price is overestimated.
Currently, the main pressure on $BTC is exerted by internal market factors, not events in the Middle East,” says Steven Wundke, strategy director at Algoz.
The main drivers of the crypto market today are the US macroeconomics, demand from institutional investors, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. According to some estimates, it is the capital flow from US government bonds to digital assets that fuels Bitcoin's growth, not the outflow of funds from gold.
What will happen if the conflict escalates?
If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the market may experience a sharp wave of selling risky assets – and Bitcoin is likely to be hit. Some analysts suggest a drop below the key mark of $100,000.
In this context, $BTC does not yet confirm the status of 'digital gold'. Its high volatility and dependence on market sentiment indicate that it remains closer to speculative assets than to protective ones.
