On June 20, Bitcoin($BTC ) briefly slipped below $104,000 amid a wave of U.S. stock-market turbulence tied to triple witching—the simultaneous expiration of equity, index, and ETF options totaling an estimated $6.8 trillion .
Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains comfortably above its critical support zone, with technical analysts highlighting bullish chart patterns that maintain a $135,000 price target outlook .
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Momentum Builds, Bullish Signals Emerge
Trading indicators on shorter timeframes are turning bullish, with some analysts eyeing $108K as the next milestone .
On-chain models like the OBV (On‑Balance Volume) are climbing, resembling the buildup seen before previous parabolic surges in 2017 and 2021—a pattern that fuels speculation of a move toward $130K by August .
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4‑Year Cycle Theory & Institutional Momentum
Macro analyst Raoul Pal suggests the unfolding crypto cycle is “spookily similar” to 2017’s lead-up before the mega rally, reinforcing confidence in this bull phase .
The 4‑year halving cycle—a historically significant driver of major bull runs—is likely still active, even amidst the rise of ETFs and institutional allocation .
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Corporate & Regulatory Trends
MicroStrategy (now "Strategy"), holding over 592,100 BTC (~$62 billion), surged onto major stock indices after issuing $1.2 billion in preferred stock. Its inclusion gives retail and passive investors indirect $14–50 billion exposure to Bitcoin .
Meanwhile, global regulators and institutions are embracing the concept of strategic holdings—U.S. government balance sheets now tallying around 200,000 BTC, and national-level bitcoin reserves gaining traction .
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Crime & Scandal Under the Spotlight
A New England case shook the crypto world: a Connecticut 19‑year‑old pleaded guilty in a scheme that stole 4,100 BTC (~$245 million). In a disturbing twist, his parents were also kidnapped in retaliation .
In Europe, the Czech government faced political turbulence after accepting a 468 BTC (~$47 million) donation from a convicted criminal in its Justice Ministry. Although the Prime Minister survived a no-confidence vote, the scandal spotlights crypto's growing entanglement with geopolitics .
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🔍 Synthesis & Outlook
1. Price Outlook: Current support above $100K sets the stage for next targets—$108K in the short term, potentially $130K or more by summer’s end, provided on-chain momentum continues .
2. Catalytic Events: The triple witching volatility spike may either shake out weak hands or drive institutional repositioning—watch for whether markets rebound or head lower.
3. Structural Strength: Institutional integration via ETFs, corporate treasuries, and even government reserves is increasingly anchoring Bitcoin's value beyond retail narratives.
4. Risks: On-chain activity still leans "ghost town" style, meaning lower retail participation. Crypto crime and regulatory tensions add noise that could sway sentiment dramatically .
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Conclusion
Although Bitcoin recently dipped amid options-related volatility, the broader technical setup, institutional adoption, and macro cycle narratives remain robust. If support holds, Bitcoin may be lining up for a significant summer rally—potentially toward $130K–$135K.