#BTC the fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and the market perceives that the Fed cannot lower interest rates without triggering inflation again, there will be more doubts about the sustainability of the dollar in the long term.

In this context, Bitcoin becomes attractive as a decentralized asset, uncorrelated with national debt.

A reasonable prediction for BTC: $90,000 – $150,000 before the end of 2025.

If the Fed successfully lowers interest rates without producing inflation and the US stabilizes the growth of its debt, the environment will be more favorable for all risky assets.

BTC will benefit from its post-halving cycle, but the macro winds will be moderate.

A reasonable prediction for BTC: $70,000 – $100,000

If there is a national debt crisis, partial default, or a downgrade of US credit (as happened in 2011), it could create a "reverse Lehman moment" where assets like BTC serve as an alternative safe haven. $BTC