$BTC is hovering around $103.9K, down approximately 2% intraday from highs near $106.1K.
A dip briefly saw BTC fall below $104K before rebounding to support at $103.5K; this served as a key intra-day pivot.
Technical indicators show short-term bullish bias: Central Gaps flagged a โbullish openingโ on the 15-minute chart.
---
๐ Chart Structure & Levels
BTC remains within a tight range: $103.4Kโ$105.6K, bounded by EMA clusters and trendlines.
Short-term indicators (RSI ~44) reflect slight bearishness; Parabolic SAR & MACD signal caution until a breakout above $105.5K occurs.
---
๐ฎ Sentiment & On-Chain Activity
Retail sentiment is still bearish, but record liquidations (~ $450M) may signal a capitulation bottom.
Onโchain data shows a 12% rise in wallets holding over 100โฏBTCโindicating accumulation by larger holders.
---
๐ Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Context
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East initially sparked risk-off selling, but easing concerns provided a mild relief rally.
Broader risk-appetite in markets (Nasdaq +1.8%) is translating into BTC interest, supported by increased global liquidity.
---
๐ Outlook
Scenario Key Level Trigger
Bullish Close above $105.5K Break of descending trendline + rising volume
Bearish Break below $103.4K Trendline/EMA support failure & bearish momentum
A confirmed close above $105.5K could pave the way toward $107Kโ$108K resistance.
On the downside, a drop below $103.4K risks testing $102K or even psychological $100K.
---
๐ฃ Expert Perspectives
Some analysts flag a bullish consolidation pattern, forecasting moves to $130Kโ$135K by Q3 2025โdriven by institutional accumulation and OBV trends.
Other models suggest BTC wonโt dip much below $106.2K in the monthโthough current price suggests that might be optimistic.
---
๐ก Strategist Summary
ShortโTerm Strategy: Monitor $105.5K (bull upside) and $103.4K (bear danger). Consider a disciplined range-trading approachโbuying near support, trimming near resistance.
MediumโTerm View: Accumulation by large holders and fading bearish sentiment may fuel a breakout later in Q3 toward $130K+, provided macro momentum remains favorable.
---
๐ Final Take
BTC is consolidating in a well-defined range amid mixed technical and sentiment signals. With on-chain metrics and institutional accumulation offering hints of bullish undercurrents, a decisive
breakout (or breakdown) at the key levels above will signal the next major move.
