A significant portion of the total bitcoin supply, namely 30%, is considered unavailable for the market, which potentially creates risks for the entire ecosystem.
According to Fidelity estimates, 17% of the total bitcoin supply can be categorized as 'ancient BTC' — these are coins that have not moved in over ten years.
Approximately 20% of all mined bitcoins are irretrievably lost. This has occurred due to loss of access to private keys or inability to access wallets. Notably, 1.8 million BTC associated with Satoshi Nakamoto have also been inactive for over ten years.
The reduction in available supply creates serious problems for bitcoin. Each unavailable BTC exacerbates the scarcity, distorting the balance of supply and demand. A decrease in the active mass leads to increased volatility, making the market more sensitive to large transactions. Furthermore, the reduction in the number of freely circulating coins increases the concentration of influence, allowing large holders to have a stronger impact on the price.
Bitcoin risks becoming more of a scarce asset than a medium of exchange. If this trend continues, the economic model of the cryptocurrency may require reevaluation, especially considering the approach to the limit of 21 million BTC. Currently, 19.8 million bitcoins have been mined.
