President Donald Trump says he’ll decide within the next two weeks whether the U.S. will join Israel in its escalating conflict with Iran. It’s a high-stakes call, and everyone—from political analysts to online prediction markets—is watching closely. As of June 20, traders on Polymarket are putting the odds of U.S. military action against Iran before July at 43%.
Iran’s Fordow Facility in the Crosshairs
Tensions have been rising fast. After Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military targets, Iran hit back, fueling fears that the conflict could spiral across the region. It’s already getting messy—CNN reports that an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq has threatened to hit U.S. bases if American forces join the fight.
Their message was blunt: if the U.S. steps in, their bases will be “like duck-hunting grounds.”
Axios reports that Trump is considering authorizing a strike on Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment site, possibly using the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)—a 30,000-pound bunker-buster designed to take out deeply buried targets. Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says Trump hasn’t closed the door on diplomacy, but any deal would have to shut down Iran’s nuclear ambitions for good.
When asked specifically about Fordow, Trump responded:
> “We are the only ones who have the capability to do it, but that doesn’t mean I am going to do it. I have been asked about it by everybody but I haven’t made a decision.”
Markets, Militias, and Military Meetings
The speculation is intense. That 43% likelihood on Polymarket reflects a slight dip from earlier reports, but $19.46 million in trading volume shows just how closely people are watching. Behind closed doors, Trump’s team has been holding meeting after meeting, trying to assess whether a targeted strike could do the job without dragging the U.S. into another drawn-out war.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers from both parties are sounding the alarm. No one wants to see the U.S. pulled into yet another Middle East conflict—especially one with such unpredictable fallout. Missile strikes have already hit both civilian and military sites in the region, and things could escalate quickly.
A Pivotal Choice in a Volatile Region
Bottom line: Trump has a decision to make, and it’s a big one. Whether he chooses to push for a diplomatic solution or green-light a military strike, the consequences will ripple far beyond Iran and Israel. The clock is ticking, and the world is watching—closely.
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