Debt Scale Exceeds $37 Trillion

Data as of June 2025 shows that the total U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, accelerating from $36 trillion in November 2024, with interest payments accounting for 25% of fiscal tax revenue.

Rating Downgrade: For the first time in 108 years, Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1, with all three major rating agencies downgrading U.S. Treasury bonds to below 3A.

Fiscal Sustainability Crisis

The ratio of U.S. debt to GDP has reached 123%, far exceeding the international warning line of 60%. Interest payments account for 4% of GDP, expected to rise to 30% by 2034, creating a vicious cycle of 'borrowing to pay off old debt.'

Trump's 'Great Beautiful Plan' proposes an additional tax cut of $4 trillion, which may further expand the deficit.

II. Changes in Global Holding Patterns

Trend of Major Creditors Reducing Holdings

China: Reduced holdings for two consecutive months (reduced by $18.9 billion in March and $8.2 billion in April), with holdings dropping to $757.2 billion, the lowest since 2009, falling to the third-largest creditor.

Japan: Still the largest holder ($1.13 trillion), but has cumulatively reduced holdings by over $400 billion from 2022 to 2024.

The United Kingdom: Increased holdings by $28.4 billion to $807.7 billion, rising to the second-largest creditor.

Many countries are accelerating de-dollarization

Gold as a Substitute: By the end of 2024, gold will replace the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset (accounting for 20%), with 60% of gold purchases by emerging market central banks being used to replace U.S. Treasuries.