The recent market situation can be summed up in one word: Boring.
Bitcoin is repeatedly consolidating, US stocks open high and close low, altcoin trading volume continues to dwindle, and the crypto market seems to have hit a pause button. Funds are on the sidelines, no one dares to heavily buy the dip, and no one is willing to completely exit; liquidity is decreasing while volatility could increase at any moment.
When will the next wave of market movement come? The answer may lie in two 'slow variables':
Variable 1: Middle East situation—a 'time bomb' that could explode at any moment.
The tense confrontation between Israel and Iran continues, but Trump's attitude is surprisingly 'calm': no rush to make statements, no rush to send troops, even claiming 'going to play golf on the weekend'.
Why so calm?
Because once involved in war, it not only burns money but also drives up oil prices, stimulates inflation, and directly disrupts the Federal Reserve's rhythm of rate cuts—this is extremely unfavorable for Trump’s election prospects. What he wants is 'steady economy, steady market', not turmoil.
But the danger lies in: the longer the time drags on, the greater the possibility of sudden events.
For example: If Israel suddenly takes action, the US is forced to respond—at that time, market panic will quickly escalate.
Variable 2: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts—whoever gives in first, loses?
Another core variable affecting market direction is—when will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
Currently, economic data remains strong, inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve 'dare not ease', while Trump is 'waiting to ease'. This 'psychological game' determines whether market sentiment continues to fluctuate or suddenly shifts.
If inflation continues to stagnate, the Federal Reserve will have to withstand pressure and delay rate cuts.If the economy shows signs of fatigue, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, and the market will react swiftly.
Whoever 'can’t hold on' first will break the deadlock, and the market will immediately give direction.
Low liquidity + high sensitivity = the market is very easily magnified.
The current state of the market can be summarized in one sentence: Little money, cautious people, and high volatility.
USDT funds have slightly flowed back, but USDC continues to flow out, and large funds have not entered the market in full.
Bitcoin has accumulated a large number of chips between $100,000 and $105,000, and any breakout in either direction could trigger a violent reaction.
Altcoins are in worse shape, with slight buying and selling triggering violent fluctuations and thin trading volume.
This means that any sudden event could trigger 'excessive volatility':
Middle East situation escalates → Oil prices soar → Inflation heats up → Interest rate cuts delayed → Risk assets plunge
Federal Reserve suddenly turns dovish → Full expectations for rate cuts → Bitcoin and US stocks soar together → Bull market ignites early
📍 What’s the next step? Keep a close eye on these key points.
Middle East variables: If the US continues to observe, the market will temporarily ignore risks; if Israel takes action first, safe-haven assets may strengthen instantly.
Federal Reserve movements: Pay attention to inflation and employment data from June to July; if they signal easing, the market will react quickly.
Bitcoin price level:
Falls below $100,000 → May drop to $93,000–$98,000, triggering panic.
Breaks above $106,000 → May attract funds back in the short term, initiating a rebound.
Conclusion: The market has started, only lacking a 'trigger'.
On the surface, the market appears calm, but underlying power has long been building.
Short term: High uncertainty, low liquidity, prone to explosion and movement.
Medium term: Expectations of rate cuts + potential risk accumulation may be brewing the next major market movement.
📌 Strategy suggestion: Stay patient, manage volatility with light positions, and focus on Middle East news and Federal Reserve statements—these two points will determine when the market truly starts.
