#美国国债

#U.S. National Debt

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Soars Above 4.7%! Three-Layer Squeeze Chain Ignites ‘Stablecoin Yield Civil War’, $USDC Becomes the Ultimate Winner

Interest Rate Nuclear Bomb: The Crypto Transmission Chain of Bond Market Collapse

1️⃣ Sell-off Storm:

- 30-Year Treasury Auction 'Catastrophic' Subscription Ratio Only 2.3 Times (Historical Average 2.6)

- Hedge Fund Short Bets Reach $34 Billion, a New High Since 2008

2️⃣ Stablecoin Arbitrage Revolution:

- USDC 'Treasury Yield Penetration' Mechanism: Holding USDC Automatically Earns Overnight Reverse Repo Yield (Current Annualized 5.28%)

- USDT Holders' Yields Drop to Zero, $4.1 Billion Moves to USDC in One Week (Circle Reserve Report)

Three-Dimensional Arbitrage Matrix

1️⃣ Spot Arbitrage:

- When USDT/USDC Exchange Rate < 0.995, Buy USDT to Exchange for USDC → Annualized Yield 63%

2️⃣ DeFi Yield Stacking:

- Aave Depositing USDC Earns 5.28% + Borrowing USDT to Short → Net Yield Spread Expands to 4.1%

3️⃣ Treasury Futures Hedge:

- Shorting 10-Year Treasury Futures + Going Long USDC, Volatility Premium Annualized 9.3%

Liquidity Cliff Warning

- If Yield Breaks 5%:

✅ Triggers $12 Billion Corporate Bond Default Wave → USDC Reserve Asset Impairment Risk

✅ Stablecoin Decoupling Probability Soars to 38% (CoinMetrics Model)

- Ultimate Safe Haven:

Move to DAI (Over-Collateralized ETH) or Spot BTC (Negative Correlation -0.89)

Retail Investor Ultimate Survival Kit

$$ \begin{align*}

\text{Stablecoinα} = & \left( \frac{\text{Treasury Yield}}{4} \times 1.8 \right) \\

& - \text{Transaction Friction Cost} \\

& - \text{Credit Risk Premium}

\end{align*} $$

Current Value: 5.28% (Historical Peak)

Harsh Reality: U.S. Treasury Collapse Triggers a Boom in Stablecoin Yields, but a 5% Yield is a Liquidity Flashback!

#U.S. National Debt