"In the darkest moments of the market, it is often the smart money that bends down to pick up chips - do not fall in the fire before dawn."

1. News: The three core clues of the long-short battle

  1. Whales are frantically hoarding, exchanges are being 'drained' of ETH

    • In the past 48 hours, over 82 million USD in ETH has flowed out of exchanges, as whales and institutions are moving ETH into cold wallets for long-term accumulation. Exchange ETH reserves have dropped to multi-year lows, and once demand surges, it could easily trigger a 'supply crisis'.

    • Even more shocking, on June 12, a single day saw whales scoop up 871,000 ETH worth over 2 billion USD, setting a record for 2025! These large holders are betting on a surge in the second half of the year.

  2. Policy benefits in double impact: interest rate cut expectations + stablecoin legislation

    • The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; if realized, hot money will flow into high-risk assets, with ETH being the primary beneficiary.

    • The US stablecoin bill may land this week! The Senate passed the procedural vote with a 68:30 margin, clarifying the regulatory framework. The surge in stablecoin trading volume directly benefits ETH network gas consumption and ecosystem activity.

  3. Countdown to technical upgrade: Pectra upgrade becomes a potential nuclear bomb

    • Pectra upgrade goes live in July, optimizing network efficiency and reducing validator costs. Historical experience: Major ETH upgrades often trigger speculative rallies.

    • Layer 2 explosive cost reduction: Average fee is only 0.16 USD, attracting a large influx of new users into second-layer networks like Arbitrum and Base.

2. Technical Analysis: The brutal truth of the four-hour chart

  1. Key price level: 2360 USD is the line of life and death

    • Support level: 2425 daily line golden ratio - breaking this level looks towards 2360 - losing 2360 could lead to a deep drop to 2300.

    • Resistance level: 2580-2600 - unable to break this will still be a bear market.

  2. Indicator divergence: MACD golden cross may be a 'smiling knife'

    • Currently, MACD shows a golden cross, but the price has plummeted from 2879 to 2363! A typical 'bottom divergence trap' requiring caution against a secondary drop after a fake rally.

    • Bollinger Bands opening downwards: Price is clinging to the lower band, with the middle band pressing down to 2526, confirming that the bearish trend remains unchanged.

  3. On-chain alert: 2500 USD is the leverage graveyard

    • If ETH falls below 2500, it will trigger over 336 million USD in long liquidations! A chain reaction of liquidations may exacerbate the sell-off.

$ETH

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