At 22:56 Beijing time on June 20, the US semiconductor index (SOXX) surged at the open and then suddenly plummeted by 2%, with Nvidia facing a sell pressure of $3.7 billion in one hour. Panic spread to the crypto market instantly, with ETH crashing 3.2% within five minutes, piercing the weekly key support down to $2408. This unusual movement coincided with SEC Chairman Gensler's strong statement that 'regulation of cryptocurrency securitization is not completed', creating a perfect storm of policy black swan and capital market squeeze.



【Technical Bullish/Bearish Stronghold Illustration】
Based on on-chain data tracking, during last night's crash, the main force built dense defensive fortifications in the $2483.89 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level) to $2408 range, with 11 OTC large buy orders exceeding 10,000 ETH emerging in that area. The current technical pattern shows three key coordinates:

Bullish Lifeline: $2483.89 (institutional bottoming cost area from last night, losing this level triggers quantitative sell-off)

Trend Watershed: $2521.75 (daily Fibonacci 50% pivot, breaking confirms reversal)

Nuclear-Level Support: $2363.00 (weekly platform bottom and whale stop-loss overlap area)
If the price cannot recover the $2500 mark within three trading days, it will likely test the $2300-2330 abyss area.

【News Under Currents】

Traditional Capital Reallocation Signal: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $487 million yesterday (monthly peak), Fidelity's spot ETH ETF application document suddenly updated on the SEC's official website (deadline July 8).

On-chain Fund Movements: Coinbase's OTC trading platform sees a buy order of 32,000 ETH at $2415, Grayscale ETHE negative premium rate narrows from 12.4% to 9.2% within 24 hours, indicating institutions are buying the dip.

Derivative Extreme Signal: ETH perpetual contract funding rate drops to -0.83% (lowest value in the past three months), short positions exceed 68%, market brewing violent short squeeze.

【Market Forecast and Battle Map】
Bullish Counterattack Scenario (Probability 60%)
If the semiconductor index stabilizes and rebounds at the US stock market open tonight, ETH will launch a counterattack relying on the $2483 defense line. Breaking through the $2521 Fibonacci pivot will trigger short covering momentum to push the price up to $2579 (CME futures gap) to $2630 (liquidation zone). The core catalyst lies in the SEC releasing optimistic signals for ETFs before July 2; Bloomberg analysts reveal that VanEck has submitted key amendment documents.

Short Squeeze Scenario (Probability 35%)
If Nvidia's stock price falls below the $122 support level, ETH will face the risk of a second bottom test. The technicals need to closely monitor the $2437.68 (23.6% retracement level) defense strength; once broken, it will trigger programmatic sell-off accelerating towards $2363. Particularly vigilant of Tether Treasury not issuing USDT for 24 consecutive hours leading to liquidity exhaustion.

【Iron Eagle Third-Level Combat Instructions】

First Defense Battle (current price $2420-2440): spot positions increase to 60%, leveraged accounts use 3x long positions to hedge (stop-loss at $2380)
Second Defense Zone ($2360-2380): deploy band bullets in batches for building positions, simultaneously long ETH/BTC exchange rate (target 0.0542) to hedge systemic risks.
General Offensive Signal (breakthrough $2521): increase chase positions by 30%, focus on laying out $2600 call options (premium ratio 5%)

【Doomsday Alarm System】

Red Alert: SOXX index continues to fall below the 500 mark.

On-chain Anomaly: Whale address transfers over 50,000 ETH to exchanges in one hour.

Policy Thunderstorm: SEC delays decision announcement, hitting the market.

#加密市场回调
Loneliness is the excuse of the weak! The Iron Eagle team arrives, top support, only mad to show ambition!
$ETH