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2017: Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, says that macroeconomic data suggests that the current crypto cycle could extend into the second quarter of 2026.
The cryptocurrency cycle is evolving in a 'creepy' way like in 2017: Raoul Pal
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Raoul Pal, CEO of cryptocurrency research platform Real Vision, says that the current cryptocurrency market reflects the pattern seen in 2017 when Bitcoin recorded a steady upward trend throughout the year before rising significantly in December.
Pal said in a video on Thursday: 'The situation is eerily similar to 2017.' He added that he started expecting a longer cryptocurrency cycle this time, as the business cycle index - a macroeconomic model he uses to track the global economy's position in the broader cycle - 'is still below 50' and usually 'takes some time to rise.'
Macroeconomic data is the catalyst behind the extended crypto cycle
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
$103,471
Bitcoin started 2017 trading at around $1,044 before reaching $2,187 by May 31 and closing the year at $14,156, representing an approximate increase of 1,255% from its price at the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data.
However, Pal predicted that the weakness of the US dollar may indicate that the current cryptocurrency cycle is still far from reaching its peak.
He said, 'With the dollar declining even today, we've started to point out that this may continue until the second quarter of 2026.' Since January 1, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen by 8.99%, registering 98.77 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. Both Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have an inverse relationship.
When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin becomes more attractive not only as a speculative investment but as an alternative currency.
Cryptocurrencies
The US Dollar Index was 98.774 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView
Pal said that macroeconomic data may have served as the fundamental catalyst in pushing the crypto cycle back further.
He said, 'It seems as if the entire cycle has shifted due to price adjustments not happening; the dollar has been moving sideways for a while.'
He added that current market conditions may resemble those of 2020 more than those of 2021, suggesting that the market may be in an earlier growth phase than many assume.
'The mission' of the Middle East is artificial intelligence and blockchain
Bitcoin started 2020 at $7,174, but fell by 27% to $5,227 by March. It then rose by 129% to $11,990 in August, closing the year at $28,993, an increase of 304% from its price at the beginning of the year.
Related: Bitcoin reserves and stablecoin regulations are key market drivers in 2025, according to VC
Raoul Pal said that for the market to continue to expand, it needs to attract 'big players'. He talked about his recent trip to the Middle East, where he met with sovereign wealth funds, and said that most of them have positive expectations regarding cryptocurrencies.
'The core mission across the entire region, from Saudi Arabia to Abu Dhabi to Dubai to Bahrain to Qatar, is artificial intelligence and blockchain.'
He added, 'Not only using Bitcoin as a reserve asset, but also building the entire government infrastructure on blockchain technology.'
