Bitcoin Analysis (dated June 21, 2025)
📊 Current Situation (June 21, 2025)
Bitcoin traded today at levels between $102,600 – $106,100, closing around $103,900 after a slight decline (~ -2%).
The core price range is characterized by sideways consolidation within $103,400 support and **$105,500 resistance**.
Key influencing factors
1. A technological hedge wave
A symmetrical triangle is forming on the 4-hour timeframe; RSI near 44, and MACD flat – all hinting at a 'technical ceasefire'.
It could break out of this range either upwards towards $107–$108K or downwards to $102K or $100.6K if $103.4K support fails.
2. Massive liquidations
The market witnessed a wave of long position liquidations yesterday worth ~ $450 million, as the price fell to $103K.
These liquidations bring temporary volatility, but also show resistance to immunity at support levels.
3. Institutional sentiment and regulations
Bitcoin's adoption as a strong institutional asset—thanks to ETFs and executive orders like the U.S. 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve'—supports long-term confidence.
The issuance of regulatory laws such as the framework on 'stablecoins' gives a positive intermediary impression to investors.
4. Divergence of opinions among traders; a survey showed a sharp divide; 50% expect a drop to $94K, versus 49.8% betting on a rise to $114K.
Part of the market sees it as a neutral sideways range with a slight bearish bias in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Rise
Breakout of resistance $105.5–$106K with positive RSI/MACD break.
$108K → $110–$112K
Drop
Break of support $103.4K confirmed by negative MACD.
$102K → $100.6K (Critical support point)
Bullish catalysts: Increased institutional inflows and anticipation of macro indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Bearish factors: Political/geopolitical tightening or a new wave of liquidations.
📈 Short-term forecasts
Analysts do not expect a new breakout to the upside before the end of July, but sideways consolidation may continue, and upward momentum could begin for a new wave towards $145K in the second half of the year.
✅ Summary
Current price: ~ $103.9K (Sideways range).
Support: $103.4K → $102K → $100.6K.
Resistance: $105.5K → $108K → Previous ATH level at ~$112K.
Outlook: Continued volatility ahead of a potential bullish trend in H2 2025 with the beginning of improvements in technical and institutional indicators.
