Midnight scare! In the early hours of June 21, Ethereum staged a dramatic flash crash: The price suddenly plummeted from a high of $2550, dropping nearly 7% in one hour, reaching a low of $2363. The evaporation speed of nearly $200 caught traders off guard, and the market page couldn't refresh in time to reflect the drastic changes. As of the time of writing, ETH has slightly rebounded to above $2400, but the intraday drop remains as deep as 3.7%.
1. Technical warning: $2550 becomes the 'despair ceiling' for bulls
The crash had been foreshadowed. The technical chart clearly shows that $2550 has built an unbreakable resistance wall for three consecutive days.
Three assaults have all failed: Each time approaching this level, buying momentum quickly diminishes, forming a typical 'triple top reversal' structure.
Divergence signal sounds the alarm: Even more fatal is that when the price hits $2550, the 1-hour RSI indicator continues to decline, forming a textbook-level 'top divergence'—this is a clear sign of bears gaining momentum.
When the price finally breaks through the psychological barrier of $2500 with volume, programmatic trading instructions will pour down like dominoes. Trading volume surges instantly, triggering a chain of stop-loss orders, causing a market stampede.
2. U.S. stocks become the trigger: Institutional 'chain liquidation' causes massive tremors on-chain
The last straw that truly crushes ETH comes from the traditional market:
U.S. retail data unexpectedly weak: The retail sales data for the U.S. released on the evening of the 21st (Beijing time) fell far short of expectations, causing the Dow Jones to plummet by 400 points.
Institutions urgently de-risk: As the correlation between cryptocurrency and U.S. stocks has soared to 90%, institutional investors quickly sold off the most liquid ETH to cover losses in U.S. stocks. On-chain data captured a massive sell-off of over 5000 ETH on Coinbase, confirming the panic exit of large holders.
ETF funds accelerate outflow: Compounding the issue, on that day, the net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs reached $11.3 million, with ETHA alone seeing a net outflow of $19.7 million, indicating a clear trend of institutional capital fleeing.
3. Life-and-death defense line $2360-$2380: Dealer's trump card and battleground for bulls and bears
Currently, ETH is taking a breather in the $2360-$2380 area, which is by no means ordinary support:
Historically dense trading area: In January this year, this range repeatedly oscillated to form a market 'psychological anchor'.
450,000 ETH on-chain chip fortress: On-chain data shows that over $1 billion worth of ETH is accumulated here, likely the cost zone for major funds. Once lost, it will trigger large-scale stop-loss orders.
Analyst Liying pointed out that $2360 is the 'critical support that cannot be lost'; if it breaks with volume, the price may slide to $2300 or even deeper. Conversely, if it stabilizes here and forms a 'bottom reversal' pattern, an oversold rebound may be imminent.
4. Future market projection: Short pain not yet over, long bull lurking?
▶ Short-term life-and-death struggle (24-48 hours):
Tonight's U.S. stock opening is the biggest variable. If U.S. stocks stabilize, ETH may organize a technical rebound based on $2360, with the first target at $2450. But if the rebound lacks volume support, it remains a good opportunity for shorting.
▶ Mid-term turning window (1-2 weeks):
Bearish scenario: If it continues to be constrained by the resistance at $2450, it may enter several weeks of consolidation, testing the support at $2150.
Bullish sparks not extinguished: The weekly chart still holds steady in the bull market support range ($2215-$2405), and if the potential 'bullish flag' on the daily chart breaks above $2600, the mid-term target could be $3600-$3700. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are about to form a 'golden cross', a signal that has reappeared since the bull markets in 2016 and 2020, possibly igniting a new round of market movement.
Last night's crash tore open the market's fragile veil: Technical weaknesses meet macro black swans, often leading to a 'long kill long' tragedy. $2360 has become a battleground for bulls and bears—this is not only a main defensive line but also a thermometer for market sentiment. When bloodied chips emerge, one must clearly discern: Is it the end of the trend, or a 'golden pit' on the way to a bull market?
Tonight, keep an eye on the U.S. stocks and large on-chain orders; the market will set traps or rewards for those brave enough to 'catch the falling knife'.
In the glow of the trader's screen, the candlestick chart pulses like an electrocardiogram.
Below the defense line of $2360,
is a bottomless abyss,
or is it the last shudder of a dealer's washout?
Tonight, the market will deliver the answer.