"When U.S. stocks sneeze, the crypto market catches a cold! Last night's flash crash is a living example—those minor technical issues were smashed into ICU by U.S. data!"
Brothers, did you see last night's plunge in ETH? It was truly thrilling! Just as it touched $2550, before you could even get comfortable, it ‘whooshed’ down to 2363, nearly a $200 drop, evaporating 7% in an hour! Many brothers messaged me asking what happened, so let’s break it down:
Technical analysis: It's already at the end of its tether, just holding on!
Case study: Look at that $2550; it's like a metal lid—attempts to break through it three times in the past three days have all failed. It's like chasing after a girl; if she doesn’t show up after three dates, the fourth time you push, the likely outcome is getting the cold shoulder! The bulls have long exhausted their strength, and confidence has worn thin.
Case study: More crucially, although the price nudged a small new high before the crash, look at the RSI indicator on the hourly chart; it was actually moving down! It's like driving a car, flooring the gas, but the speed keeps decreasing—how can you not stall? This is called 'divergence at the top,' a textbook warning for a downturn!
Fatal blow: Then what? The price 'clang' smashed through the key support of $2500, and the trading volume suddenly surged. It’s like knocking over the first domino, triggering a wave of programmed stop-loss orders, instantly causing a stampede! Retail investors, seeing the breach, also panicked and fled chaotically.
Qiu Ge's perspective:
The technicals had long buried mines! Attempting to break through 2550 three times and failing, what does that indicate? It shows that the main players don't really want to push it up with real money! They might be luring in buyers or waiting for a chance to run away. A pullback? That's only a matter of time; last night's U.S. stocks just provided a spark.
News: U.S. stocks plummeted, triggering precisely!
Trigger: Last night at 9 PM (our time), the U.S. released some retail data, and it was bad! Worse than expected. The Dow Jones (representing large U.S. company stocks) instantly plunged over 400 points! That scene was even more thrilling than A-shares.
Why did ETH crash? The crypto market and U.S. stocks are like 'wearing the same pants'! The correlation is frighteningly high (reportedly 90%). Why? Because a lot of the big money buying ETH and Bitcoin comes from the same batch of institutions! When U.S. stocks crash, institutions fear losing money, and their first reaction is to quickly sell off their 'high-risk' assets to hedge. With ETH having a large market cap and good liquidity, it naturally becomes the first to be dumped!
On-chain evidence: During the crash, it was clear on-chain that someone sold over 5000 ETH in one go on Coinbase! Can retail investors do that? Clearly, it's institutional big shots urgently hedging and controlling risk.
Key details matched up:
The precise moment ETH fell below $2500 coincided perfectly with the plunge in U.S. stocks! Isn't that enough to illustrate the problem? This crash was 'dragged down' by the U.S. stock market!
What to do after the crash? Keep a close eye on this 'whale's lair'!
The price is now hovering around 2363, this position is crucial! Why?
Historical memory: In January this year, ETH repeatedly hovered around this area (2360-2380), forming a support level, like a psychological defense line.
On-chain evidence: Even more hardcore, digging into on-chain data, over 450,000 ETH has been accumulated in the range of 2360-2380! This is likely the cost zone where the main players built their positions. They wouldn’t want to easily lose money by breaking through here, right?
Brothers, tonight's U.S. stock opening is the main event! If the U.S. stocks can stabilize, ETH near this 'whale's lair' (2360-2380) might organize a rebound! But if U.S. stocks continue to slump, or if ETH breaks through 2360 with volume... then for the next stop, we need to be mentally prepared to ‘travel’ to 2300 or even lower! Opportunities often hide in the bloody chips of others' losses during market panic; tonight, will you watch the market?