📉 Bitcoin is experiencing a "quiet and dangerous" balancing period?

Although it appears there are no major fluctuations, BTC's current situation has begun to show some "fragile" signals.👇 Let's see what has happened:

💰 Realized profits are declining; is the market's "heat" diminishing?

Currently, the BTC price is about $103,460, but the realized profits on-chain (7-day average) have fallen below $1 billion, the lowest level since October 2024.

👉 In other words, not many people have made money recently, and there are not many eager to sell.

Although there have been a few small rebounds in price in the short term, overall it seems—profit-taking is sluggish, and funds are on the sidelines.

🐋 What are the whales doing? They seem not very active...

Here comes the key point! In the past week, the net flow of large wallets has decreased by 191.44% 😱

That is to say:
🔹 Big players are not buying much anymore
🔹 Some might still be quietly "reducing positions" or cautiously observing

April and May were relatively stable, but from June it started to decline sharply. If these major funds don't enter the market, Bitcoin's support will significantly weaken.

📉 Derivatives market: Clear bearish sentiment

For example, the financing rate on dYdX has been negative—this is an important signal indicating traders' bearish sentiment.
🔺 Every time the bulls push up, they are pushed back down; the market seems unable to "rise up".

If this state continues, speculative selling may increase, which is not friendly to BTC prices.

📊 MVRV indicator: Profit margins are shrinking, short-term holders may not be able to "hold on"

At the beginning of June, the MVRV Z value was 2.97, now it has dropped to 2.47.

This means:
💡 The market's "unrealized profits" are decreasing
📉 Short-term holders may be more likely to sell if they feel their profits are not significant

Meanwhile, veteran holders are relatively calm, but the market is stuck in this "mutual observation" state.

🔍 Is on-chain valuation too high? The bubble smell is a bit strong

Several commonly used on-chain valuation indicators have recently surged:

  • NVT ratio increased by 37.78%

  • NVM ratio increased by 27.45%

📈 This means that the market capitalization is much larger than the on-chain utility value, and the price may have slightly "diverged from fundamentals"...

Historically, every time these indicators surge, it is followed by either a major correction or prolonged consolidation.

💎 Is the scarcity indicator also weakening?

Bitcoin's S2F (Stock-to-Flow) ratio has recently decreased by 16.66%.
This means that people's perception of Bitcoin's "scarcity" is not as strong as it used to be.

💭 Is it that the market is not as optimistic as before? Or are people less active with their coins? In any case, this signal is not very optimistic.

📌 To summarize: The market is currently very "fragile"

Although BTC seems to be consolidating, many on-chain and trading data suggest:

🔻 Demand is weakening
🐋 Big players are becoming conservative
📉 Bulls lack confidence
📊 Valuation seems a bit inflated

If this state continues, the price may soon no longer be "calm"; the possibility of a directional change is slowly accumulating...

💬 In summary:

Bitcoin now looks like a calm sea, but underneath there are turbulent currents 🌊

Friends, be cautious, pay attention to on-chain movements, and stay flexible! 💡

DYOR, manage risks well, and may everyone set sail in the crypto world! 🌊

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