The market remains short-term bearish with fading momentum to the downside, and bullish pressure is building from oversold conditions. However, no full confirmation of reversal yet. We are in a low-probability neutral-to-bearish zone — waiting for the next power move.
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🧠 Technical Overview:
🔻 Bearish Factors:
RSI(6, 14, 24) on both 1H & 4H remain below midline – short-term strength still weak (1H RSI(14): ~37, 4H RSI(14): ~36)
MACD histogram still red across all timeframes, with weak or shallow cross attempts (MACD < Signal on 4H & 1H)
StochRSI on 4H is still in oversold zone (~12), with 1H barely recovering – indicates no full bullish momentum flip yet
Funding rate remains negative (~ -0.0058) – suggesting majority are shorting, but no liquidation wave yet
Order book still shows heavier ask wall above $2500-$2600, suggesting continued short pressure overhead
OBV declining – volume flow not supporting sustainable bounce
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🟢 Bullish Reversal Signs Building:
Wm%R(14) at extreme oversold on both 1H and 4H: -68 to -72 → historically bounce-prone
StochRSI divergence between 1H and 4H → early signal of potential short-term bottoming
MACD histogram flattening on 1H with attempt to cross zero → needs confirmation
Retail long dominance (L/S Ratio > 3) and OI increase → retail is buying dips, but likely to be trap-prone without whale validation
OI at 2.05M with growing L.S. Accumulation – suggests buildup for next move (trap/reversal)
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⚠️ Tactical Signal Status:
Tier 1 Entry: ❌ Not Available (No multi-timeframe + indicator confluence yet)
Tier 2 Entry: ⚠️ On Watch (Emerging bullish divergence forming on 1H)
Tier 3/4 Short Bounce Possible, but dangerous without reversal confirmation
Market Bias: Bearish-Neutral
Risk Profile: Medium (Trap Likelihood High)
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🧪 Tactical Conclusion:
The ETH/USDT market is cooling off after a harsh drop. Funding, indicators, and order books show bearish-to-neutral control, but whales are not yet re-entering long. Retail may be buying too early, which could result in another stop run. However, short-term relief bounce is forming — but only sustainable if MACD confirms reversal and OBV shifts up.
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🔐 Signal Decision:
No fresh entry yet.
