Today is June 21, 2025. The significant decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum is the result of multiple market pressures, which can mainly be summarized into the following four key reasons:
️ 1. Technical breakdown and deterioration of market sentiment
1. Key support lost: Bitcoin was already in the symmetrical triangle oscillation range of 103,400-105,600 USD on June 20, and today it broke below the key support level of 103,400 USD, triggering programmatic stop-loss selling and forced liquidation of long positions. Ethereum also lost the 2,480 USD support, accelerating the downward momentum.
2. Derivatives market pressure: A large number of put options (strike price 104,000-105,000 USD) in Bitcoin options expiring on June 21 increased selling pressure before expiration. Implied volatility of 31% shows that the market has low expectations for a breakout, but panic sentiment spreads after the breakdown.
3. Liquidity crisis spreading: Bitcoin's dominance rises to over 65%, while the altcoin market faces a liquidity gap of 36 billion USD, leading to concentrated withdrawals from small and medium market cap tokens (including Ethereum-related ecosystems), further dragging down the overall market.
2. Escalation of geopolitical risks
1. Iran-Israel conflict escalates: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the threat of Iran's nuclear program on June 15, and tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. The market is worried that the expansion of the conflict may push oil prices to 120 USD/barrel, exacerbating global inflationary pressure and triggering a shift to safe-haven assets. Demand for gold (PAXG) surges, while Bitcoin, classified as a 'risk asset', is sold off.
2. Historical pattern repeats: Similar to the conflict event in early June 2025 (Israel's strike on Iranian nuclear facilities), Bitcoin plummeted to 103,000 USD in a single day, showing the crypto market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
3. Macroeconomic and liquidity pressures
1. Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy: Although the market expects two rate cuts in 2025, the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at a high of 4.25%–4.50%, and Powell emphasizes 'data dependency', weakening expectations for liquidity easing. The ability of US stocks (especially tech stocks) to attract funds has increased, creating competition with the crypto market.
2. Inflation and oil price linkage risk: If the Middle East conflict leads to oil supply disruptions, it may push up energy prices and force the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. History shows that periods of monetary policy tightening are often accompanied by shrinking liquidity in the crypto market.
3. Transmission effect from traditional markets: S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq index futures fell simultaneously, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) dropped over 2.7%, indicating a broad decline in risk asset categories.
4. Key observation points for subsequent trends
- Bitcoin must hold above 100,600 USD: This level is a liquidity cluster on-chain and a BOS (breakout confirmation point) retest level; losing it may lead to a drop to 98,000 USD.
- Ethereum focus on the 2,300-2,400 USD support zone: If it breaks below, it may trigger a wave of DeFi liquidations.
- Catalytic factors: Attention should be paid to the developments in the Middle East, US June CPI data (inflation signals), and whether Bitcoin can recover to 103,400 USD to turn it into support.
Summary: The core drivers of today's decline, key factors affecting this decline and their market performance:
Bitcoin breaks below the support level of 103,400 <br > Ethereum loses support at 2,480 USD
Triggering programmatic stop-loss and forced liquidation of long positions
Accelerating downward momentum: Geopolitical situation, escalation of Iran-Israel conflict
Oil prices may rise to 120 USD/barrel, safe-haven funds turning to gold (PAXG)
Bitcoin is classified as a risk asset and sold off |
Macroeconomy: The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates (4.25-4.50%)
Inflationary pressure increases | Shrinking liquidity in the crypto market
Funds shift to US tech stocks
Market structure: Bitcoin's dominance rises to over 65%
Altcoin liquidity gap of 36 billion USD | Funds are concentrating on withdrawing from small and medium tokens
Dragging down Ethereum and the related ecosystem
This decline is the result of the resonance of technical vulnerabilities, geopolitical risk premiums, and tightening macro liquidity. Short-term market sentiment recovery relies on the easing of geopolitical situations or Bitcoin quickly recovering above the 103,400 USD mark; otherwise, it may further test the psychological support at 100,000 USD. Investors need to closely monitor the fund flows after the US stock market opens tonight and the latest developments in the Middle East.
Continuous attention: #特朗普施压鲍威尔 #币安HODLer空投SPK #以色列伊朗冲突
