Analysts note that the technical setup and market behavior are nearly identical to the 2017 market cycle, suggesting that the price outlook for Ethereum has yet to reach the cycle peak.
A month-long volatility has kept this leading altcoin within a tight consolidation range that could just be the final phase before a major breakout.
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dismissing ongoing macroeconomic instability and asserting that the U.S. economy is in a 'solid position', a rate cut in July could reignite risk appetite.
Ethereum Mirrors 2017 Breakout Setup
In a comparison shared by reputable crypto analyst Merlijn, the price of Ethereum is visually and technically similar to the price movements that occurred in 2017.
In the 2025 chart, ETH is approaching the 50 SMA after months of downward pressure and oscillation within a range. Currently, it is consolidating below this line in a narrow sideways trend lasting a month.
This closely resembles the 2017 scenario when this altcoin faced similar consolidation below the 50 SMA before breaking above in a parabolic surge that marked the beginning of its historic bull run.
If history repeats itself, pressure could increase in a similar direction. However, Merlijn argues that market maturity may push it further at this point as 'no ceiling has been observed'.
They point out that clearer regulatory clarity, institutional participation through ETFs and corporate treasury bond holdings, along with broader retail acceptance are key drivers that could push for a stronger breakout.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Is the Current Target $10,000?
While the five-figure price level for Ethereum remains a speculative target, a similar pattern to 2017 could open the door for a breakout of the three-year ascending triangle pattern.
Momentum indicators seem to support the potential move above the 50 SMA. The RSI shows that buyers continue to overwhelm sellers, maintaining a position above neutral at 52.
Furthermore, the MACD line is widening the gap from the signal line—evidence that the bullish trend has been strengthening since the bottom in mid-April.
The crossing of the 50 SMA could trigger a 53% increase to retest the upper boundary of the consolidation range noted by Merlijn at $4,000, aligning with the Fibonacci level of 0.786.
If Ethereum breaks through that range, the triangle will set the next important target at the Fibonacci extension level of 1.618 around $7,335 - a 188% increase from the current price.
In the short term, traders should monitor the stubborn resistance area immediately around the $3,350 level. A rejection here could delay the breakout and provide a temporary cooling-off period.
