SAND Oversold Alert! Buying Opportunity or Trap? Bear Market Rebound Imminent

Currently, SAND is in the mid-term of an oversold bear market, with a price of 0.2482 below the key moving averages. RSI < 30 suggests a short-term rebound opportunity. Aggressive buying is recommended: entry at 0.248, stop loss at 0.242, target at 0.26, risk-reward ratio of 1.9. Risks: Shrinking trading volume and capital outflow may lead to a failed rebound; stop loss if it drops below 0.24.

Technical Analysis

• Price Status: Bollinger Band position at 27.2% (near lower band at 0.243), indicating oversold; MA200 deviation at -4.9% and holding cost deviation at -5.1%, both below the current price, confirming weakness.

• Market Strength: 24-hour trading volume down 49% (ratio 0.51), declining volume suggests eased selling pressure; open interest down 5.7% in 24 hours, continued capital net outflow (5-day net flow -21.55M), smart money long-short ratio drops to 1.26 (fewer bulls); no significant news, the market has digested bear market sentiment.

• Key Levels: Support at 0.243 (Bollinger lower band), resistance at 0.26 (MA200); liquidity shows sellers concentrated at 0.8+ high level, with more sell orders in the nearby area (difference -18k), buying pressure slightly better at 1.08 but strong buy orders in distant areas, a gap between 0.25-0.26 may trigger volatility.

Market Cycle Analysis

Current mid-term in a bear market: consecutive price declines (weekly drop of 6.5%), dominated by capital outflows, but oversold indicators suggest a possible short-term rebound.

Trading Strategy

• Entry Point: 0.248 (near current price, starting point for oversold rebound)

• Stop Loss Point: 0.242 (below Bollinger lower band, to prevent breakdown)

• Target Level: 0.26 (MA200 resistance)

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.903

Risk Warning

Market Risks: Insufficient trading volume and macro events may continue the decline; strategy fails if it drops below 0.24; single trade risk < 2%, avoid low liquidity periods.

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