Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin continues to move in a sideways range at high levels, reflecting a struggle between long-term institutional buying and short-term profit-taking pressures amid a global uncertainty related to monetary policies and geopolitical risks.
After recording a new high near the important psychological barrier of $111,900, the upward momentum of Bitcoin began to slow down as markets entered a phase of reassessment regarding their expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates at 4.5%, along with signals indicating a potential cut during the third quarter, provided some support for highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. However, the persistence of real interest rates at high levels and the continued general caution among investors make the current upward wave of Bitcoin lack strong momentum in the short term.
On the geopolitical front, developments still represent a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. On one hand, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran—along with reports of potential U.S. involvement—lead to increased interest in decentralized assets as a hedge against global instability. On the other hand, rising volatility levels and the absence of new capital inflows from individual investors present two major obstacles to the continuation of the long-term upward trend.
On the four-hour time frame, Bitcoin is moving within a broad sideways range, showing a clear consolidation structure. After failing to stabilize above the resistance area between $107,000 and $108,000, the price has retreated and is currently testing the support area at $103,500 – $104,000. If buying demand continues at this level, we may see a rebound towards the area of $106,800 – $107,800, which currently represents medium-term resistance. However, if selling pressures increase and the price is pushed below the $103,500 level, the next support is at $100,800 – $101,200, which corresponds to the last monthly low. At this stage, the price structure does not show a clear direction, and it is likely that Bitcoin will continue to trade sideways within the range of $103,500 – $107,000 until a strong catalyst emerges capable of determining the next direction.