Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are actively wagering on the likelihood that the GENIUS Act, a landmark US stablecoin regulation bill, will become law after its recent Senate approval. The online prediction platform Polymarket has set the odds at an 89% probability that the bill will pass both the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump before 2026. This betting market was initiated about 18 hours after the Senate passed the bill with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday.
The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) establishes comprehensive federal standards for stablecoin issuers, including requirements for full reserve backing, monthly audits, and strict anti-money laundering compliance. The legislation aims to modernize the US financial system by enabling banks, fintech companies, and even major retailers to issue their own stablecoins or integrate them into payment networks.
Despite bipartisan Senate support, the bill faces uncertainty in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority. There is speculation that amendments might be introduced, especially concerning concerns over President Trump’s connections to the crypto sector, such as ties to World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin USD1. Previous attempts to add anti-corruption provisions linked to Trump were rejected in the Senate.
President Trump has publicly indicated willingness to sign the GENIUS Act “with no add ons” if the House passes it swiftly. Meanwhile, the House is also considering the CLARITY Act, which would clarify regulatory roles over digital assets. Aligning the Senate and House versions of stablecoin legislation could take time, as they differ in regulatory authority distribution.
Polymarket’s betting odds reflect the confidence of some crypto users in the bill’s eventual enactment but do not guarantee legislative outcomes. The platform captures how much participants are willing to stake on potential scenarios rather than providing a formal prediction of congressional or presidential actions.
The passage of the GENIUS Act marks a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, signaling a shift toward federal recognition and regulatory clarity for stablecoins, which are viewed as a bridge between digital currencies and traditional finance. The bill’s enactment could catalyze growth in the US stablecoin market, projected to expand substantially in the coming years.
