Recent on-chain data suggests a notable shift in profit-taking behavior among long-term holders (LTHs), signaling that the current crypto bull trend may be entering a mature phase. By excluding the 6–12 month holding cohort—many of whom bought during the Q1 2025 peak with limited unrealized gains—the spotlight moves to investors who have held for over 12 months. This group, often regarded as conviction-driven holders, provides a clearer picture of seasoned investor activity.
These >12-month holders are now realizing profits at scale. Historically, such behavior tends to appear near local market tops or phases of trend exhaustion. Their increased activity aligns with data from the Cumulative Binomial Distribution (CBD) Heatmap, which shows a rising wave of selling pressure driven by older coins.
This wave suggests more than just casual profit-taking—it reflects a strategic exit by investors with substantial profit margins, who’ve weathered previous cycles. Their behavior can be an early indicator of shifting market dynamics. While this doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the bull run, it does emphasize caution. A maturing trend often brings more volatility and consolidation before new highs are reached, especially when smart money begins to move.