【Spot Deep Freeze, On-chain Signal Sounds - Is the Market About to Change?】

On the surface, Bitcoin is still holding at the $106,000 line, looking calm. But the more tranquil it appears, the more we must be wary of the undercurrents.

On-chain data shows that spot liquidity is continuously drying up. Buy orders are shrinking, trading volume is declining, and on-chain trading activity has reached a new low for this phase. This market is like a tightly strung string, eerily quiet.

What is even more concerning is:

📉 The holding structure shows almost no significant loosening - indicating that funds have not actively entered the market.

📉 Although there has been inflow into ETFs, net purchases have not translated into substantial on-chain transactions.

📉 The number of active addresses has been declining continuously, with on-chain participation severely contracting.

This pattern is not unfamiliar in history. Whenever spot buy orders lose momentum and trading heat plummets dramatically, the market is at a critical point. It either crashes or rebounds strongly, never ending calmly.

It's not that the market "doesn't want to move", but that the main players "dare not move". Policy expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and the path of interest rate hikes in the United States are all suppressing risk appetite. And retail investors? They have long been dissuaded by the shadow of being cut off during the altcoin season, leaving only a cold and sparse game of existing stocks.

Now, it is the eve of a structural game.

The direction of the market is no longer determined by candlesticks but by whether funds will re-enter the on-chain.

Don't just look at prices, look on-chain. Don't just focus on candlesticks, look at the structure. The real risk is not when it falls, but when "it seems like nothing has happened".