What will the next market trend be?
Current price and support level:
The current trading price of Bitcoin is around $105,500, having recently fallen to $104,000 twice, indicating short-term volatility. $102,500 is considered a key support level.
Market stage:
Bitcoin is currently in the 'cooling' phase (index at 0.41) but has not yet entered the correction phase. The index fell from 0.45 on May 22 (price $111,000) to 0.39 on June 5 (price $101,000), indicating the market is entering an accumulation phase. If the index falls below 0.39 and the price drops below $100,000, it may signal the market is entering an adjustment phase.
Dynamics of bulls and bears:
Long-term holders continue to accumulate, showing confidence in the market's long-term bullish outlook.
Strong ETF inflows provide hope for the bulls' recovery.
Institutional bears exert selling pressure through the price differences between spot and perpetual futures, leading to short-term price declines.
Geopolitical impact:
The tensions in the Middle East have a limited impact on the market but may push prices toward the support level of $102,500. Geopolitical uncertainties may delay the recovery of the bull market trend.
Market sentiment and data support:
The spot buying over the past 90 days shows dominance in buying, indicating that bulls are optimistic about price recovery. Current market activity is at normal levels, with holders more inclined to continue holding.
Analysis and outlook:
Short-term volatility: Bitcoin prices fluctuate between $104,000 and $105,000 and may continue to be influenced by institutional bears and geopolitical factors in the short term. The support level of $102,500 will be key, and a drop below this level may trigger a more significant adjustment.
Recommendations:
Focus on key levels: closely monitor the support level of $102,500. If the price falls below these levels, a reassessment of market trends may be necessary.
Track the heat index: If the index falls to 0.39 or below, in conjunction with price movements, a trading strategy adjustment may be needed.
Geopolitical dynamics: continue to monitor external factors, such as the Middle East situation, affecting the market.