$BTC $BTC Here's a tailored swing trading strategy using the BTC/USDT pair, along with recent market context:
📊 Recent Market Structure & Context
Bearish breakout below a 4‑hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $109,000, signaling potential downward pressure toward $102,700–$100,000 .
Conversely, bullish trend setups:
Flag pattern breakout with golden cross on the daily chart, pointing to possible upside toward $112,000 → $137,000 .
Consolidation above 0.618 fib retracement (~$105–106k) on 1-hour chart suggests short-term bullish bias .
🎯 Swing Trading Playbook
1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Daily (1D): Primary trend indicator—monitor golden/death crosses, flag patterns.
4-Hour (4H): Identify Fair Value Gaps & structure breaks—focus entry on retest of FVGs.
1-Hour (1H): Refine entry/exit using fib levels (0.382, 0.618), candlestick signals, and volume .
2. Strategy Setup: FVG Retest Short
Bias: Bearish if price reclaims FVG and fades near $107,000–$109,000.
Entry: Short when BTC retests the 4H FVG resistance (~$107k–$108k) and shows momentum failure (e.g., bearish engulfing).
Stop-Loss: Just above the FVG zone or recent high (around $109,500).
Targets:
Target 1: $102,700 (4H wick low)
Target 2: Psychological support at $100k .
3. Strategy Setup: Pullback Long
Bias: Bullish for swing when price dips to support around $104k–$105k fib area.
Entry: Go long on bounce off 0.618 fib retracement (~$104k) with confirmation from 1H candles & volume .
Stop-Loss: Slightly below $104k (e.g., $103k).
Targets:
Near-term: $107k–$108k (previous resistance)
Extension: $112k–$120k if larger bull flag breakout holds .
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⚠️ Risk Management Tips
Limit exposure to ~1–3% of your capital per trade.
Use tight stop-loss to manage overnight risk.
Avoid trading around major announcements (e.g., FOMC, CPI).
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📝 Example Trade Summary
Trade Type Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target(s) Reward:Risk
Short
