Long Setup: $ETH
โ Entry: $2,525โ$2,530 (support + MA confluence)
๐ Stop-Loss: Below $2,495 (swing low breach)
๐ฏ Targets:
TP1: $2,546 (local high)
TP2: $2,800 (breakout confirmation)
Short Setup (Contingent)
โ Entry: Rejection candle at $2,546โ$2,550
๐ Stop-Loss: Above $2,558 (resistance zone)
๐ฏ Targets:
TP1: $2,510 (mid-range support)
TP2: $2,483โ$2,485 (swing low)
โ ๏ธ Critical Risk Signals
Bullish Invalidation: Close below $2,495 targets $2,395โ$2,240.
Bearish Cancellation: Break above $2,800 opens path to $3,065โ$3,600.
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $2,564, consolidating below the decisive $2,800 resistance level. Institutional accumulation, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics suggest a pivotal moment for ETH's trajectory.
๐ Technical Structure
Key Resistance: $2,800 (psychological and technical barrier). A breakout could trigger a 40% rally, mirroring Bitcoin's November 2024 surge.
Immediate Support: $2,495โ$2,530 (50-day SMA confluence + rising channel support). Break below $2,495 invalidates bullish structure.
Moving Averages:
Resistance: 200-day SMA at $2,600
Support: 50-day SMA at $2,450
Chart Pattern: Rising channel with bullish bias; rejection at $2,550โ$2,565 (50% Fibonacci retracement) signals short-term weakness.
๐ Fundamental Catalysts
Institutional Demand: $861.3M net inflows into spot ETH ETFs in two weeks, highest since January 2025.
Supply Squeeze: 35M ETH staked (all-time high), reducing liquid supply.
Accumulation Surge: 22.8M ETH held in non-selling addresses ($58B value), indicating long-term conviction.
๐ Market Sentiment
Ethereum broke its 2024โ2025 downtrend on June 17, fueled by record accumulation and shrinking exchange reserves. However, ETH still lags Bitcoinโs 2025 performance, requiring a decisive $2,800 breakout to confirm a macro reversal.
Pro Tip: Limit risk to 1โ2% per trade. Move stops to breakeven after TP1. Monitor $2,495 and $2,800 for directional bias shifts.
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