### Core Factor Analysis:

1. **Market Sentiment and Capital Flow**:

- If the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved (early 2024), it may drive overall capital inflow into the crypto market, with ETH benefiting as the leader.

- If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations (second half of 2024) materialize, risk assets may receive liquidity support.

2. **Technical Upgrades and Ecosystem**:

- **Cancun Upgrade (completed)**: Layer2 transaction fees reduced by 10 times, increasing ecosystem activity (for example, daily trading volume on Base chain exceeds ETH mainnet).

- **Staking Rate**: Currently 26.3% (over 31.5 million ETH locked), deflationary effect continues (annual destruction rate around 0.25%).

3. **Regulatory and ETF Progress**:

- Eight institutions, including BlackRock, have submitted ETH spot ETF applications, with the SEC's final decision delayed until May 2024. If approved, it may replicate the explosive growth of the Bitcoin ETF (BTC +160% after approval).

4. **Competitive Pressure**:

- Competitors like Solana are siphoning off capital (SOL +700% this year vs ETH +90%), but ETH still accounts for 57% of the total locked value (TVL) in DeFi.

### Assessment of the Possibility of Breaking 10,000:

- **Optimistic Scenario** (30% probability): Approval of ETH spot ETF + Federal Reserve interest rate cut, driving ETH to challenge 10,000 (requires a +190% increase within the year).

- **Neutral Scenario** (50% probability): ETF delayed but ecosystem growth, testing the 6000-7000 range by year-end.

- **Pessimistic Scenario** (20% probability): Regulatory black swan (such as SEC suing ETH over security status) or macroeconomic risks, keeping prices under 4000.

> **Conclusion**: Breaking 10,000 requires multiple favorable conditions (especially ETF approval), with the current probability being low but room for speculation. A more likely target is in the 5000-7000 dollar range. Closely monitor the preliminary ETF approval signals in September and the Federal Reserve's policy shift in October.