ETF money is flowing in, but the coin price is stuck to the floor—it's not your eyes playing tricks, it's because there's too much 'fake movement' hidden in this 'smart money game'! Just broke! Another whale borrowed 10 million dollars to sweep up 3,983 ETH—do you think institutions are charging in? Maybe it's a whale playing 'leveraged bungee jumping'!

1. What you think is 'institutional involvement' might just be whales playing hard

“ETF inflow = institutions buying buying buying?”—Wrong! Retail investors, arbitrageurs, and even gambling whales are all trying to make their presence known!
Latest evidence: A certain whale borrowed 10 million USDT from Aave 4 hours ago, aggressively buying 3,983 ETH at an average price of 2,510 dollars. Does this operation look familiar? In March, a whale borrowed 26 million USDT to bottom fish ETH, and in April, someone lost 40 million before re-leveraging for another round—gambling nature crazier than retail!
“The on-chain data is booming, do you think 'the whales are flying'? They might have borrowed high-interest loans to gamble their lives! Following the trend? Be careful of ending up like that old guy in April—ETH shakes, and the rooftop queue forms!”

2. 'Whale Transfer' distraction: BlackRock has already bought in!

A sudden large amount of on-chain transfer? Don't rush, it might be 'accounting magic'!
For example, BlackRock's ETHA has a holding of 1.4 million ETH (worth 3.7 billion), but the low-priced spot might have been hoarded long ago, waiting to be concentrated into the custody address after ETF approval. The on-chain data seems like 'explosive buying', but in reality, it's 'left hand transferring to right hand'.
Blogger rolls eyes:
“It's like a supermarket moving goods from the warehouse to the shelves—you think new stock just came in? In fact, they’ve been hoarding for half a year! Following the trend? Be careful, you might end up wearing the hat of the exit liquidity!”

3. Real institutions: OTC trading + short hedging, secretly unloading!

OTC trading: In June, a certain whale bought 108,000 ETH (worth 283 million dollars) OTC, with no ripples in the exchanges;

Shorting cover: buying spot on one hand, shorting contracts on the other, creating a 'fake buying signal' before smashing down.
The blogger is so mad they start slapping their thigh:
“Institutions are playing 'the Departed'! You see the ETF inflows and laugh, while they’re laying traps in the futures market waiting for you to step on them!”

4. Worse still: Retail investors' 'hedging' turns into 'self-destruction'

Shorting ETH to hedge against altcoin risks? Be careful of a double explosion!
Many retail investors hold altcoins, and fearing a crash, short ETH as a hedge. What happened?

Altcoins are crashing (like Meme coins being halved);

ETH didn’t drop significantly (stayed flat at 2600 dollars);
In the end, 'hedging' turned into a 'double kill', losing until there's nothing left!


5. Why do I still insist on patiently waiting for 'qualitative changes from quantitative changes'?

Although there's chaos in the short term, two iron laws support me:
1. ETFs are long-acting medicine: If there's no increase after a month of inflows? Wait three months! Currently, 3.77 million ETH has been locked by ETFs (accounting for 2.97% of circulation), the more bullets are stored up;
2. Layer 2 selling pressure will eventually collapse: Base and other L2s have been criticized for '90% of profits being sold on Coinbase', but Vitalik has already called for corrections; the long-term economic model must be optimized!
Personal opinion from Xiao Chen:
“Right now feels like the oppressive heat before a storm—the 'real institutional funds' from ETFs are still to come! Once BlackRock finalizes the staking approval, the dual engines of yield and deflation will ignite, and ETH can take off!”

The more the market tricks you with fake moves to get you out, the more it indicates that a big trend is brewing! Follow me, and in the next issue, I will help you analyze:
'How does BlackRock use pledged ETFs to turn ETH into crypto bonds?'
—— Let's wait for the whales to pump the price, we won't be cannon fodder!#我的交易风格 $ETH