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key takeaway from Powell's Remarks 🔹 1. Rates Held Steady, Two Cuts Still on the Table The Fed held the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%, as expected . The median projection remains for two quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025, though dissent is growing—seven of 19 FOMC members see no cuts this year . --- 🔹 2. Inflation Concerns Are Rising Powell emphasized that tariffs are likely to add “meaningful” inflation pressure, especially in the goods sector, warning this could be more than a one-time effect . The Fed raised its 2025 inflation forecast to around 3.0–3.1%, above its 2% target . Core PCE inflation remains stubbornly sticky, particularly in services . --- 🔹 3. Growth Outlook Softened The Fed downgraded its GDP forecast to about 1.4% for 2025, down from earlier estimates . Early signs of weakness—slower housing starts and export/import swings due to trade concerns—were highlighted . --- 🔹 4. Labor Market Solid, But Cooling Gradually Labor remains strong: unemployment steady at ~4.2–4.5%, and wage growth continues, though moderating . Powell noted the labor market is in balance—not currently fueling inflation . --- 🔹 5. “Cautious, Data‑Dependent” Stance Powell repeatedly emphasized the Fed’s commitment to being patient, noting decisions will depend on incoming data and evolving economic conditions . He firmly reaffirmed the Fed’s independence, resisting political pressure from the Biden or Trump administrations for rate cuts .
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