#PowellRemarks

during the FOMC yesterday 18 June

Maintained a cautious, modestly hawkish tone—the Fed kept interest rates at 4.25–4.5% but lowered expectations for future cuts, shifting the terminal rate higher .

Warned that tariff-driven inflation may rise in the coming months, stating they must "take that into account" and learn the impact before acting .

Emphasized “forecasting in a very foggy time”, noting that projections reflect the "least unlikely path" amid high uncertainty around tariffs, geopolitical risks, and oil prices .

Retained the Fed's projection of two rate cuts in 2025, but fewer officials expect cuts; now, 7 of 19 see no cuts at all, suggesting no move until September at the earliest .

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📊 Market Interpretation & Expectations

Next rate cut likely in September: Markets have pushed out expectations, with only ~10 % probability of a July move, versus ~60 % in September .

Treasury yields rose, reflecting the hawkish tilt and slowdown in cut forecasts .

Stock markets slipped: Major indices pared early gains as investors digested Powell’s caution on inflation and tariff risks .

Crypto markets remain range-bound: Bitcoin and Ethereum saw little immediate reaction, trading in tight bands (~$104K–105K for $BTC ) .

Bottom line: Powell signaled a "wait-and-see" posture, holding off on rate cuts until more clarity emerges—likely around September, with inflation and tariff data being key decision drivers.