You're probably wondering why I'm talking about the dollar on the $BTC Bitcoin chart. It's because I want you to look a few steps ahead.
That's why this post is for people like that.
1. Global Economic Transformations: Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary System
Insights and Logic:
We are witnessing the end of the Jamaican monetary system, established in 1976 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
The Jamaican system's key feature is free (yet conditionally market-driven) exchange rates and the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.
For decades, the U.S. utilized the dollar's reserve currency status to finance budget and trade deficits without equivalent value returns—a beneficial "global tax."
Facts:
Currently, over 60% of global reserves are denominated in dollars (IMF data), but diversification is accelerating.
The U.S. is facing a "liquidity trap": to sustain markets, the Fed must print money, exacerbating inflation and weakening the dollar's global effectiveness.
Analogy:
Just as Nixon abolished the gold standard in 1971, we are now witnessing the abolition of the dollar's global standard—not abandoning the dollar as a reserve currency, but its monopoly.
2. Political Environment in the U.S.: Trump, Tariffs, and Managed Uncertainty
Insights:
Court decisions against Trump's tariffs are political tools, especially prior to congressional elections.
Democrats aren't just fighting for power—they systematically undermine Trump's economic policies in voters' eyes.
Systematic Explanation:
Virtually any presidential decree in the U.S. can be challenged legally. Lower-court decisions rarely withstand appeals, yet they create temporary buffers allowing policy adjustments.
This enables Trump to recalibrate his trade model systematically without losing face.
Conclusion:
The U.S. operates under "managed uncertainty," where seemingly chaotic political behaviors are structured adaptation mechanisms to global changes.
3. Mass Market and Sixth Technological Paradigm: NBIC as Foundation for Future Growth
Insights:
The future mass market will be built around NBIC technologies:
* Nano—new materials and sensors;
* Bio—biotech, genetic engineering, life extension;
* Info—digital platforms, neural networks, blockchain;
* Cogno—cognitive interfaces, AI, neural interfaces.
Historical Analogy:
Just as cars and mobile phones defined the mass market of the 20th century, longevity treatments, AI services, and neural devices will define the 21st century.
Facts:
Examples of current "false starts": Nvidia, Palantir, OpenAI—stock price volatility relates not to technology failures but premature valuation.
Forecast:
The next 20 years will see growth in new sectors, dominated by those capturing mass consumers, not just investors.
4. Digitalization and Geo-economics: Telegram, AI, and Control
Facts:
Telegram plans to integrate Grok neural network—a signal of the digital merger of communication, payment platforms, and behavioral analytics.
Insight:
Telegram as a future super-app: messaging, finance, AI assistance—all-in-one.
This is a media reset: traditional platforms like Bloomberg and CNBC lose influence to those controlling data flows directly.
Conclusion:
Information landscapes become automated—algorithms, not journalists, manage narratives.
5. Europe: From "Progress Locomotive" to Stagnation and Subcontracting
Facts:
Germany has been in recession for three consecutive years. The average age is 46.
Pension burdens and social standards make the economic model (Rhineland capitalism) unsustainable.
Ideological Crisis:
Europe is split into "transhumanist" (West) and "neoconservative" (East) factions.
The neoconservative revolution is gaining ground in Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and even eastern Germany.
Conclusion:
Europe is skipping the sixth technological paradigm, becoming a "comfortable but uncompetitive" zone. Europe's "Japanification"—a path without acute crises but also without growth.
6. Future Growth Centers: Asia and the Global South with Risks
Facts and Locations:
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand—dynamic economies with high ROI and moderate political risks.
Philippines, Taiwan—potential proxy-conflict zones between the U.S. and China.
Logic:
Global capital moves towards higher returns rather than better living standards.
Asia becomes a new economic and geopolitical battleground similar to 20th-century Europe.
7. Role of Cryptocurrencies and USDT, USDC: Transition to Digital Dollar
Facts:
U.S. authorities view cryptocurrencies, especially USDT, as tools to reboot the dollar model.
USDT effectively integrates the dollar into the crypto economy, maintaining Treasury demand and allowing dollar exports outside the U.S.
Insights:
Unlike CBDCs, the U.S. digital dollar (via stablecoins) enables global expansion rather than local control.
The U.S. aims to lead the new monetary evolution—digital dominance instead of fiat.
8. Prospects in Latin America: Argentina, Mexico, and Risks
Argentina Analysis:
President Milei implements neoliberal reforms akin to Ukraine's: reduced state role and deregulation.
Possible outcomes: deindustrialization, increased poverty, export dependency.
Positives:
No war risks, resource-rich (oil, wine, food), good medicine and education standards (legacy).
Mexico:
High growth yet severe crime levels—excellent for business, risky for life.
9. Global Hybrid War Instead of a Third World War
Concept:
Not a "world war" but a global hybrid war: multiple power centers, proxy conflicts, shifting alliances.
Theaters of conflict: Asia (especially the South China Sea), potentially the Middle East and Africa.
Strategic Conclusion:
Avoid proxy countries; prefer "neutral dynamic" regions like Indonesia, Vietnam.
About DXY
I have been talking about the fall of the dollar index for a very long time.
September is coming soon!