$USDC Powell mentioned that this year's inflation expectations are higher than in September 2024, mainly due to the pressure from tariffs. This indicates that inflation may have a certain stickiness. If future inflation data shows an unexpected rebound, or if the labor market performs too strongly, the Federal Reserve may still delay interest rate cuts or even hold steady in September to ensure that the inflation path aligns with its long-term target of 2%.

Even if rate cuts begin in September, the expectation for rate cuts in 2026 has been adjusted from 50 basis points to 25 basis points, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts will be moderate and cautious rather than aggressively accommodative. They will adjust gradually based on economic data, avoiding premature easing that could lead to an inflation rebound. It is more likely that the Federal Reserve will start its first rate cut in September, but the subsequent rate cut path will be gradual and data-dependent.