Two big sharks exited their positions with a loss of $7 million as PEPE failed to break the resistance.
Rising NVT and negative MVRV indicate bearish pressure remains despite ongoing oversold conditions.
PEPE [PEPE] has experienced two consecutive withdrawals by two major sharks, each shark transferring 600 billion Tokens to Binance, representing over $12 million in liquidations, both with losses of around $3.5 million each.
These retreats come on the heels of a failed recovery attempt, reflecting increased caution from major investors.
The whale's move also suggests a potential lack of long-term confidence in memecoin, especially as technical indicators and other timeframe support levels are all turning bearish.
Can PEPE survive the growing pressure?
Recently, PEPE formed a Cup-and-Handle pattern, which is usually a bullish sign in technical analysis. However, the pattern failed to break above $0.00001200, and the price retreated within the downtrend channel.
Nonetheless, the bearish structure remains intact at the time of writing, with bulls attempting to defend the support at $0.00001014.
The Stochastic RSI has entered the oversold zone, suggesting a short-term recovery. However, to confirm the main bullish momentum, the price needs to break above the resistance level of $0.00001280, which would confirm the bullish trend and reduce the risk of further declines.
Source: Trading View
Witness investor apathy and activity decline
Investor activity on the network is slowing down markedly, with all four key on-chain metrics sending bearish signals.
The network's net growth was only 0.70%, while the “In the Money” wallet dropped 7.07%, indicating that many holders are in a loss.
Large transaction volume also decreased by 5.18%, reflecting a decline in interest from high-value traders. Additionally, asset concentration remained the same, indicating limited cumulative supply from large wallets.
This is in line with the general market sentiment, as both retail and institutional investors are less interested in the memecoin.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Meanwhile, PEPE's NVT index climbed to 137, a level not seen in recent months. This indicates that the network value has been overstated relative to actual on-chain activity, warning of the risk of overvaluation.
When trading volume cannot expand at the same pace as market capitalization increases, the possibility of a price correction is higher. Unless there is a sudden increase in on-chain activity, PEPE remains vulnerable to downward pressure.
Historically, high NVT peaks have been accompanied by pullbacks, especially during sentiment-driven rallies.
PEPE's growing damage
The MVRV Z-score continues to decline, currently at -0.29. This index represents the average holdings of investors with unrealized losses.
This can lead to undervaluation risk and reflect a loss of confidence among holders. In many cases, a persistent negative MVRV can signal the possibility of capitulation or long-term accumulation.
However, in the current scenario, with bearish on-chain data and failed technical patterns, the trend looks likely to continue weakening unless a strong reversal factor emerges.
Source: Santiment
PEPE's ability to regain strength, or more challenges to wait?
Although PEPE currently has oversold conditions and a temporary bounce pattern is likely, broader indicators still reflect weakening momentum. The whale retreat, rising NVT, and negative MVRV all indicate fragile investor sentiment.
If the bulls fail to retake the key resistance levels around $0.00001280, with increasing participation, the recovery could only be temporary.
Conversely, the risk of a deeper decline remains high, although technical models may predict a short-term bounce, but not enough to reverse the main market trend.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/pepe-whale-rut-lui-niem-tin-giam/
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