Large Flow Chart and Flat Funding Ratio Reveal Weak Structure Behind RAY's Post-Upbit Rally
Raydium [RAY] has surged more than 25% after being listed on the Korean exchange Upbit, attracting intense interest from retail investors and creating strong volatility. Highly leveraged traders appear to remain cautious, as shown by on-chain indicators and market sentiment.
Huge Crypto Volumes Pour In and Funding Rates Remain Unchanged
At the moment, RAY is trading around $2.24, breaking the temporary high of $2.30 during the craze. However, an important warning appeared when whales poured 906,788 RAY worth nearly $2.26 million into Binance, which hinted at a possible distribution of coins from whales.
In the chain ecosystem, strong data shows an unstable trend. Trading momentum may slow down faster than expected, indicating the lack of sustainability behind the sudden price increase.
This is not what bullish investors want to see!
Funding rates have remained nearly flat at +0.01% in the derivatives market, despite the RAY spike. Typically, parabolic pumps are followed by highly leveraged long positions and a spike in Funding Rates.
This shows that traders with abundant leverage are still cautious, avoiding opening new buying positions, waiting for clearer signals from the market.
If the Funding Rate turns mostly negative again, it is likely that the bears will start to take over again. These indicators clearly reflect a hesitant sentiment rather than a consensus supporting a long-term uptrend.
Source: Santiment
Social metrics hit multi-week highs, reflecting market sentiment
RAY's social overview reached 0.458% and social volume increased to 22 mentions, the highest level in many weeks. Community interest was clearly shown through the listing of prominent exchanges, creating a strong hype wave.
However, these hype-based rallies are often unsustainable without solid fundamentals underpinning them. The euphoria can provide a temporary boost to prices, but will quickly fade without real network growth.
Therefore, the ability to sustain the rally depends on investors shifting their attention to long-term ownership. The market needs to move further to maintain sustainable growth.
Source: Santiment
Have short-term holders started to exit?
While active investors remained hopeful, a quiet trend began to emerge as short-term holders began to exit.
MVRV Long/Short has dropped to -30.84%, reversing from positive to negative after the error update. This drop shows that most short-term investors have lost profits in this round.
This reduces immediate selling pressure, as fewer traders are taking profits. However, it also suggests that trend traders are leaving the market, weakening short-term trading volume and potentially slowing short-term price momentum.
Source: Santiment
Will RAY hold support as the bullish structure weakens?
RAY price is holding around $2.24 after rebounding from the $1.90–$2.10 demand zone — a range that has triggered bullish rallies in the past. However, this time, the follow-through seems uncertain.
Momentum indicators remain positive, giving the technical advantage to the bulls. But if the bulls fail to sustain the rally, the price could reverse below $2.00, turning former support into resistance.
Additionally, increased selling pressure or a decline in interest would see this structure erode quickly, with $2.10 serving as a final limit to keep hopes of a return to the April high of $3.40 alive.
Source: Trading View
Prices are up, but user growth is lacking
The price divergence against DAA has plummeted to -51.7%, showing a clear disconnect between price action and network activity. When price increases much more than new address creation, the risk of a reversal increases.
This may reflect that RAY’s recent price surge is more speculative than mainstream adoption. In previous cycles, similar divergence levels have signaled a potential for further price declines or stalls.
So without a real increase in user activity, this rally could lose its validity and fall back to the old support level.
Source: Santiment
Conclude
RAY has grown by around 25%, mainly due to the Upbit listing, however, technical and on-chain indicators warn about the sustainability of this rally. Whale transactions, unstable Funding rate, and a sharp drop in address activity indicate the weakness of the trend.
Before this pump becomes a long-term trend, there needs to be a clear increase in real demand and user expansion. Otherwise, RAY could quickly cool off like many previous sentiment-driven rallies.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/raydium-tang-25-tren-phantom-nguo-co/
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