#PowellRemarks

🎙️ Key Highlights

Rates Held Steady

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut

Tariff Pressure & Inflation Outlook

Powell emphasized that recent and proposed tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices this summer. He noted the Fed will watch to see if this inflation is merely one‑off or more persistent

Economic & Labour Overview

GDP growth was downgraded to around 1.4% for 2025, while unemployment remains solid at 4.2%, with projections rising to 4.5%

Inflation Remains Elevated

Inflation (PCE) is running at ≈2.3%, with core PCE at 2.6%. The Fed expects inflation to reach 3.0% by year‑end before gradually approaching 2.1% in 2027

Rate Cut Outlook & Uncertainty

The Fed continues to expect two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, but acknowledged increasing internal divergence—about seven officials now foresee no cuts due to inflation risks

. Powell underscored that the path remains unclear and data‑dependent, citing the “foggy” outlook .

Data Quality Warning

Powell cautioned that cutbacks at agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics threaten economic data quality—harming policy decision-making. He stressed the need for reliable statistics to avoid “flying

🔮 Highlighted Themes

Theme Summary

Tariffs → Inflation Tariff impact expected to begin impacting consumer prices in summer.

Stagflation Risk Low growth and elevated inflation could persist.

Dot Plot Divergence Mixed forecasts; consensus on cuts weakened.

Data Dependency Rate decisions hinge critically on timely, accurate economic data.

⏳ Predicted Path Forward

Timing for Rate Cuts: Likely September 2025, assuming inflation eases and growth stabilizes

Economic Transparency: Powell reinforced the Fed’s independence from political pressure (e.g. Trump’s public calls) and noted a cautious, data-driven approach