🚨🚨📢🌍 Global Macroeconomic Impact of the Israel–Iran Conflict
1. Surge in Energy Prices & Global Inflation
The conflict raises concerns about a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil export route (one-third of global supply). Brent crude has risen 7–11% in recent days.
Goldman Sachs assesses the potential geopolitical risk at +$10/barrel, and it could even exceed $100–150 per barrel in extreme scenarios.
ABN AMRO and Capital Spectator see that the current rise in energy prices is manageable, as global production remains sufficient, but it still triggers inflation.
Oil-importing countries (such as India, Indonesia) may face inflationary pressures and a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
