Overall, the macro environment has not released any strong positive signals; market confidence remains weak, and the main players are still inclined to wait and see. On the technical side, after the price surged and fell back from the high point of 108900, it has continued to decline to around 103300. Although there has been a rebound, the trading volume is clearly insufficient, indicating that the pullback after the decline is more of a technical correction.

Currently, the hourly Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, and the market has entered a consolidation range. Although the MACD maintains a golden cross status, there are obvious signs of weakening momentum; the KDJ has turned down from a high position, showing signs of a death cross, and the upward momentum in the short term has already lost strength. The price is repeatedly pressured around the middle band and has not been able to break through the resistance level of 105500, indicating that the bears are still in control of the rhythm. If there is no significant breakout or strong news to support it, it cannot be ruled out that the price will test the 103000 line again. This rebound lacks sustainability; personally, I still hold a bearish view and tend to think that the rise is a trap to lure buyers.

Operational advice: Focus on the resistance level: the 105500 area is currently a strong resistance, and it is not recommended to chase long positions before it is effectively broken. Entry strategy: if the price rebounds to the 105500 range, gradual short positions can be arranged, with a target at 103000. If the price strongly breaks through 106000 with high volume, short positions should be promptly stopped out to prevent reversal.