Written by: Pzai, Foresight News
Recently, news regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel has dominated the front pages of major news outlets. For people in war-torn areas and users under the global information network, a real-time and effective information source holds great value. As prediction markets have gradually garnered attention as a primary source of information in recent years and are set to shine in the 2024 U.S. election, the perspectives on issues within prediction markets are also building their reference value for people. This article provides a brief review of the fluctuations in viewpoints during the recent conflict.
Earlier on June 18, social media was widely abuzz with claims that 'a huge surprise will happen—one that the world will remember for centuries,' without providing details. Meanwhile, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated on Wednesday that Iran's possession of 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly enriched uranium may have already been transferred, raising market concerns about the possibility of Iran retaliating with a nuclear weapon. However, on Polymarket, traders are not optimistic about the probability of Iran using a nuclear weapon in 2025; while it surged to 20% on June 18, it quickly fell back to 13% the following day.
In terms of news, both Israel and the U.S. have plans to strike Iran's nuclear facilities to varying degrees, and senior European diplomats will hold nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva, somewhat alleviating this possibility. However, the U.S. approach to nuclear negotiations with Iran has been lukewarm, with a 42% probability of the U.S. and Iran resuming nuclear talks before July; a 16% probability of a new Iran nuclear agreement being reached before July; a 49% probability of reaching an agreement this year; and a 28% probability that Trump will withdraw from the Iran nuclear talks before July. In the context of the existing conflict and hopes for negotiations, traders expect a 32% probability that Iran will end uranium enrichment before August, with a ceasefire probability between Israel and Iran before July hovering around 22-23%.
As the conflict escalates, maritime authorities recommend that vessels avoid Iranian waters when heading to the Strait of Hormuz. On June 19, former Iranian Economic Minister Ehsan Khandouzi stated that 'starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no tanker or LNG cargo ship shall pass through the strait without Iranian approval.' Although this is not an official statement, its timing and the high-level identity of the speaker may reflect broader sentiments within Iran or serve as a warning for future events. Traders predict a 21% probability that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz before July, with a 37% probability of a blockade occurring within the year.
On June 16, Trump issued a statement demanding Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and warned that he might strike Iranian leader Khamenei. On June 17, Iranian state media revealed that Supreme Leader Khamenei had not appeared in public for five consecutive days and began secretly arranging the transfer of supreme power to the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, rather than to his son Mojtaba, as previously speculated. This move indicates that, facing unprecedented military pressure from the U.S. and Israel, the 86-year-old Khamenei is preparing for the worst to ensure the regime's continuity in the event of his demise. However, Trump stated that he would not take action to eliminate the Iranian Supreme Leader for the time being. According to traders' predictions, there is a 61% probability that Khamenei will resign this year, with a 23% probability of resigning before July.
Israeli officials estimate that the U.S. may join the war against Iran on the evening of the 17th, but President Trump refused to disclose whether the U.S. plans to join Israel's military actions against Iran on June 18, stating that Tehran has engaged in discussions regarding the possibility of negotiations with the U.S. In terms of deployment probabilities, traders have shown a strong interest in military actions by the U.S. against Iran, with a 67% likelihood of actions occurring before July. Traders even predict a 42% probability that Iran will be overthrown by 2025. French President Macron expressed opposition to violently overthrowing the Iranian regime on the 17th, warning that it could destabilize the entire Middle East region.
As one of Iran's important nuclear facilities, the Fordow enrichment facility is under strategic scrutiny from the U.S. and Israel. CNN cited sources stating that Trump is increasingly inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. is considering launching an attack on Iran this weekend, with the Fordow nuclear facility being a primary target. Traders also expect the probability of a U.S. strike on the Fordow nuclear facility before July to rise to 61%, while the probability of the facility being destroyed before July has reached 60%.
The recent tensions surrounding the conflict between Iran and Israel have triggered a series of chain reactions and international attention. Forecasting markets and developments indicate that the core risk of the conflict is focusing on the potential for the United States to take direct military action against Iran's key nuclear facilities, particularly Fordow, and the likelihood of a broader confrontation in the short term has significantly increased. At the same time, signs of a power transfer in Iran's regime are emerging, reflecting a heightened concern for the regime's continuity under immense pressure.
Although concerns about the direct use of nuclear weapons were once assessed by the market as low short-term possibilities, and a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not imminent, the spiral escalation of the conflict and potential threats to critical energy corridors have sharply increased regional security risks. Overall, the situation is trending towards intensified direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, with the stability of the Iranian regime facing challenges, and the international community is on high alert for the possibility of further escalation of the conflict.