🔑 Technical Factors (Graphic Analysis and Volume)
1. Strong Support at $100,000:
BTC has tested this region several times and showed defense from institutional buyers.
2. Volume Accumulation in Recent Drops:
Large players (institutional and funds) increased purchases during the drops, signaling accumulation.
3. Technical Indicators:
Indices like RSI and MACD are in oversold zones on the daily and weekly, indicating selling exhaustion.
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🏦 Macroeconomic Factors
4. Expectation of Interest Rate Cut by the Fed in the Second Half:
Even with Powell being cautious, the market is already pricing in possible cuts starting in September, which tends to favor risk assets like Bitcoin.
5. Weakening of the Dollar in the Short Term:
With the Fed signaling concern over inflation, the dollar has shown signs of weakness, which historically boosts BTC.
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📊 Specific Crypto Market Factors
6. Recent Halving (April 2024):
Historically, post-halving cycles take 6 to 18 months to reach new highs.
7. Increase in Capital Inflow via Bitcoin Spot ETFs:
Positive net inflows in recent weeks, even with the market moving sideways.
8. Growth of Self-Custody:
More users are withdrawing BTC from exchanges, which reduces the available supply for sale.
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🌐 Market Sentiment
9. Fear and Greed Index
Currently close to neutrality after weeks of extreme fear → a sign of recovery in sentiment.
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✅ Summary:
The balance is still delicate, but the technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors, combined with the post-halving effect and institutional inflow via ETFs, suggest a higher probability of upward movement in the medium term, provided that BTC holds the $100K support.