According to Fidelity's latest report, 17% of the circulating Bitcoins fall into the 'old' category; meaning they have not been moved for at least ten years. While this amount has a market value exceeding $360 billion, this prolonged stagnation signals a potential scarcity in Bitcoin.

On a daily basis, around 566 Bitcoins are 'aging,' while only 450 new tokens are being issued. This situation indicates that the supply in circulation may tighten and could jeopardize Bitcoin's function as an active currency in the long run.

Increasing 'Old' Assets in Bitcoin

According to Fidelity's analysis, early Bitcoin investors and whales continue to hold their assets for a long time. This 'HODL' trend limits the amount of active Bitcoin in circulation. With the crypto market growing for over 15 years, the number of inactive Bitcoins is increasing exponentially.

Fidelity reveals that 3.4 million BTC (worth approximately $360 billion) have not been transferred for at least 10 years. Even more striking is the increasing number of Bitcoins becoming inactive each day; in contrast, the number of new tokens produced through mining cannot meet this old supply.

Daily Supply Imbalance Raises Concerns

The report states that approximately 566 Bitcoins transition to the 'old' category daily, while only 450 new Bitcoins are issued through mining. This clearly shows that the effective supply in circulation is decreasing.

How Do Lost Bitcoins Affect the Market?

Fidelity also emphasizes that Bitcoins, some of which are locked in wallets with lost private keys or inaccessible, are effectively off the market. On-chain analyses estimate that approximately 20% of the total supply is permanently unusable.

Among these, more than 1.8 million Bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto have also not been moved for at least ten years. Due to such lost coins, the real supply in circulation decreases, resulting in serious effects on the supply-demand balance.

Reduction in Circulation and Its Consequences

The decreasing active supply may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices. As the supply limit approaches, each coin that leaves circulation tightens the existing supply further. Additionally, decreasing supply increases coin concentration in the market; large investors, that is, whales, can more easily steer the market due to the decreasing supply.

These developments pose significant risks for Bitcoin in terms of both liquidity and its use as a currency.


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