The Federal Reserve holds steady, how much longer will we have to wait for Bitcoin's "rate cut market"?

On a macro level, the Federal Reserve, in its latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, kept the target interest rate at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth time this year it has remained unchanged. The meeting minutes revealed that officials generally expect a total rate decrease of 50 basis points by 2025, but the forecast for a rate cut in 2026 has been reduced from the original 50 basis points to 25 basis points. In the face of uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts and global tariff policies, Powell emphasized that decisions will be "data-dependent" and that there will be no rush to act until inflation continues to decline.

Regarding the burden of tariffs on inflation, Powell pointed out that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers: "Without these tariffs, prices in the service sector should be able to fall more quickly. But we need to see more actual data to make a judgment on the timing of rate cuts." This statement has once again fueled market expectations for the first rate cut to begin in September.

On the other hand, the stablecoin pilot program by JD Coin Chain Technology is also steadily advancing. CEO Liu Peng stated that the first batch of Hong Kong dollar stablecoin tests has been basically completed, and more fiat currency varieties will be introduced subsequently, with applications in cross-border exchanges, digital asset trading, and e-commerce consumption scenarios. JD's global sales for Hong Kong and Macau will be the first to support stablecoin payments, and will subsequently align with global compliant platforms, striving to achieve widespread adoption of stablecoins.

In summary, although the turnover rate has seen a slight increase recently, it is mainly influenced by short-term factors such as geopolitical conflicts. Currently, there are no significant signs of panic in the market: the range of $93,000–$98,000 constitutes solid bottom support, while holders in the range of $100,500–$105,000 are still steadily accumulating. If the concentration of chips rises above 15%, it may herald a round of intensified price fluctuations. With no major economic data this weekend, geopolitical issues may continue to dominate market rhythms, and Bitcoin is expected to continue consolidating within a volatile range.