Key Takeaways from Jerome Powell’s June 18, 2025 Speech:
🔍 No Rate Change: Fed holds rates steady; Powell says decisions remain data-dependent.
📊 Rate Cuts Still Possible: Two cuts in 2025 are projected, but not guaranteed — depends on inflation and growth.
⚠️ Tariff Impact: Upcoming import tariffs could cause a “meaningful increase” in inflation.
📉 Economic Forecasts Lowered: 2025 GDP growth cut to 1.4%, inflation seen at 3%, unemployment rising to 4.5%.
📉 Patience Over Haste: Powell emphasized waiting “a couple of months” for clearer data before any policy shift.
🧭 Fed Independence: Rejected political pressure; decisions are not influenced by election rhetoric.
📉 Data Quality Concern: Warned that budget cuts to government statistics may leave the Fed “flying blind.”
