Bitcoin is Bitcoin, Ethereum is Ethereum, stablecoins are stablecoins, and altcoins are altcoins! Just because Bitcoin's price is strong and it reached a historical high in May does not mean that the altcoin season has arrived! The reality is far from what you imagine!
In fact, if you think about it carefully, Bitcoin has reached a historical high, while Ethereum hasn't even reached 2900. This shows that the situation is not as optimistic as you might think!
What standard should be used to quantify the performance of altcoins? This article is very important; please read it carefully!
1. The bottoming period for a bear market to turn into a bull market
The bottoming period for a bear market to turn into a bull market refers to [after the last wave of a small bull market appears, the retracement does not fall to a level that causes despair, and there is a very clear bottom that everyone can recognize as the lowest point. Moreover, the larger the market cap, the more obvious the bottom is. However, this phase will repeatedly cause frustration with volatility, and many will not escape the range of oscillation for a long time].
This is the accumulation period for the market makers, the most testing time, where it is easy to get shaken out. You can use wave theory + Gann theory + Wyckoff accumulation model + Chan theory to comprehensively bottom out. Only after the bottoming period can the big bull market truly take off!
Historically, the bottoming period for a bear market to turn into a bull market is 8-9 months. Can you endure it?
2. Overall Situation of Altcoins - The Secret Diagram
To analyze the overall situation of altcoins, it is necessary to exclude Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various stablecoins from the overall market cap of cryptocurrencies. This reveals the true overall market cap situation of altcoins, as shown. Please take a good look:
3. Small-Cap Altcoin Situation - The Secret Diagram
Based on the overall market cap situation of altcoins, excluding the top 50 coins by market cap, we get the overall scenario of small-cap altcoins, as shown. Please take a good look:
The overall rebound of small-cap altcoins in a small bull market is slightly worse than that of the overall market cap situation of altcoins, indicating that if you are not confident, participating in altcoins within the top 50 during the bear market's small bull is more cost-effective and has greater certainty.
4. Micro-cap altcoin situation - The Secret Diagram
Based on the overall market cap situation of altcoins, excluding the top 100 coins by market cap, we get the overall situation of micro-cap altcoins, as shown. Please take a good look:
Micro-cap altcoins ranked below 100 did not experience a bull market in 2024; it was merely a significant rebound within the bear market that began at the end of 2021. Very disheartening!
The overall rebound of micro-cap altcoins in a small bull market is much worse than that of small-cap altcoins, meaning that if you are not confident, it is not advisable to engage in altcoins ranked below 100 during the bear market's small bull, as uncertainties are high and they tend to fall without rising.
5. Conclusion
The universe has its cycles. If the method of seeking a sword by marking a boat is valid, my suggestion is:
(1) Between August and October 2025, there will be a small bull market for altcoins. If you are not confident, it is recommended to bottom fish altcoins within the top 50 by market cap. Next, consider those within the top 100 by market cap, but do not bottom fish altcoins ranked below 100.
(2) Between January and March 2026, there will be a third small bull market. If you are not confident, it is advised to bottom fish altcoins within the top 50 by market cap, followed by those within the top 100. Do not bottom fish altcoins ranked below 100.
(3) After the end of the third small bull market, the period from September to October 2026 is the bottoming period for a bear market to turn into a big bull market. It is necessary to make a significant investment before September to October 2026, reasonably allocate investments in Bitcoin, altcoins ranked in the top 50 by market cap, altcoins ranked in the top 100, and altcoins ranked below 100, aiming to maximize gains while ensuring a safety net!
(4) Which coins should be specifically bottomed out at each stage? Everyone should think for themselves.
6. The Importance of Learning Techniques
To succeed in navigating bull and bear markets, one must strengthen their own knowledge. Only by enhancing understanding can one calmly enter and exit trades and make significant profits when the bull market arrives! I recommend that everyone study the following theories from the self-media that I emphasized: [a high win-rate trading model], [wave theory], [Chan theory], [Gann theory], [Wyckoff method], etc., which will greatly enhance your ability to make substantial profits!
💡 Note: Investing is like walking through a dark road; always carry the lantern of 'risk awareness' to avoid the fog of trading and refuse to chase blindly after the light.
If you have ever drifted in the sea of desire, like 👍 + follow 'Xiao Bai learns trading points', and leave a glimmer in the comments. Share to let more people see — life is worth it, and you don't have to wager your life on it.
